IMM Positioning: Moving From CAD Into AUD‏

Published 03/19/2013, 03:44 AM
The latest IMM data covers the week from 4 to 12 March.

Investors are continuing to buy the dollar: The currency strengthened since early February with the DXY dollar index up more than 4%. The dollar rally is on despite the general positive risk sentiment in global financial markets that would normally hurt it. The move probably reflects that the USD is able to perform on strong US numbers, as it kick-started a debate whether the Fed will make an early ‘exit’ from its current QE programme. Speculative money has participated in the move, and net long dollar positions have now reached USD19.3bn – the highest since last summer.

Moving from CAD into AUD: In the commodity universe, markets are shedding the Canadian dollar, while investors have moved into the Australian dollar. The latter reflects a more positive RBA outlook that had significantly dampened rate cut expectations. The numbers do not cover the remarkably strong Australian unemployment numbers released on Thursday. However, soft rhetoric from Bank of Canada has weighed on sentiment. Non-commercial net short CAD positions are now at 21.4 % of open interest. The CAD should be able to benefit from short covering in the event of positive Canadian numbers.

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