On Wednesday, the dollar dropped to three-month lows against other major currencies, after data showed that retail sales in the U.S were lower than anticipated in April confirming worries regarding the health of the U.S economy. The Department of Commerce announced retail sales were unchanged, when market forecasts expected a 0.2% rise. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, rose just 0.1%, below expectations for a 0.5% increase. The data raised speculation that the contraction of the 1st quarter growth was not entirely caused by the harsh winter and the port strikes in the U.S. April retail sales data had no weather distortions and therefore gave a clear picture of a slowdown in the U.S economy and a potential delay in the Federal Reserve rate hike. Following the data, stock markets were mixed while gold surged by approximately 2%. In the Euro zone front, GDP data showed a growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2015, right below of expectations for 0.5% growth but still the best result in four years. For today New Zealand is to release private sector data on manufacturing activity and official data on retail sales while the U.S. will announce producer prices and initial jobless claims.
The euro rose to one-week highs against the dollar on Wednesday after weak U.S. retail sales data increased worries over second quarter growth in the U.S. after a slowdown in the first quarter. The data showed port strikes and bad weather were not the only problems that brought contraction in first-quarter growth. Weather conditions did not distort data therefore April retail sales indicated a weak start for second quarter growth causing the euro to jump back up crossing the 1.13 level and approaching 1.14 early on Thursday. For today, investors will be focusing on producer prices data and unemployment claims from the U.S.
1.126
Support1.126
1.1195
1.113
Resistance1.139
1.145
1.153
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.126 with targets @ 1.139 & 1.145 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 1.126 look for further downside with 1.1195 & 1.113 as targets.Comment: The pair remains on the upside..
Gold prices are trading close to $ 1213 per ounce on Thursday with market expectations leaning towards a delayed interest rate hike in the U.S. Yesterday, gold surged by approximately 2% reaching six-week highs, as soft U.S. economic data provided strong support for the metal as a safe haven. The U.S. Department of Labor reported a drop in import prices in April, while retail sales remained flat with department store sales and sales of electronics and appliances dropping. For today, gold traders will be focusing on producer prices data and unemployment claims from the U.S.
1200
Support1200
1191
1180
Resistance1224
1237
1245
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1200 with targets @ 1224 & 1237 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 1200 look for further downside with 1191 & 1180 as targets.Comment: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.
OIL/USD
Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday, as the International Energy Agency reported that the global supply glut remains unchanged and a slowdown in U.S production did not really help the situation as expected, as OPEC is still increasing production and claiming its share of the market. Prices received some support by the EIA report on inventories that showed a drop by 2.2 million barrels for last week. A U.S. summit with Persian Gulf nations at Camp David later this week will be in focus for further indications on the global oil production outlook.
61.85
Support61.85
62.6
63
Resistance59.45
58.75
58.15
Scenario 1: Short positions below 61.85 with targets @ 59.45 & 58.75 in extension.Scenario 2: Above 61.85 look for further upside with 62.6 & 63 as targets.Comment: As long as 61.85 is resistance, likely decline to 59.45.
DOW JONES
U.S. stocks were mixed after the close on Wednesday, as gains in the Technology, Industrials and Telecoms sectors led shares higher while losses in the Utilities, Consumer Services and Basic Materials sectors led shares lower. Mixed data came following the negative retail sales data, as it provided a negative outlook for consumer spending in Q2 while on the other hand it implies that loose monetary policies will stay for longer. The Dow ended the day in negative territory with its worst performer being EI du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE:DD) which fell 6.76% and Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) which declined 1.18%. For today, traders will be focusing on producer prices data and unemployment claims from the U.S.
17585
Support17585
17040
16330
Resistance18290
18900
19200
Scenario 1: Long positions above 17585 with targets @ 18290 & 18900 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 17585 look for further downside with 17040 & 16330 as targets.Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
CISCO
Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) reported third-quarter earnings on Wednesday with adjusted earnings per share coming in at 54 cents, compared to the 53 cents expected by Thomson Reuters analysts. The also reported sales of $12.14 billion, above the $12.07 billion Wall Street expected. This marks the last earnings report under current CEO John Chambers, who will be replaced by Chuck Robbins on July 26. Shares of Cisco ended the day close to $29.35 per share and are up 5.6 percent since the start of the year.
26.15
Support26.15
24.25
22.45
Resistance30.3
32.2
34.2
Scenario 1: Long positions above 26.15 with targets @ 30.3 & 32.2 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 26.15 look for further downside with 24.25 & 22.45 as targets.Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.