The dollar advanced on Thursday against most major currencies, recovering most of the drop posted on Wednesday, after initial unemployment claims in the U.S were announced lower than expected for last week and as markets turned to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending May 2 rose by 3,000 to 265,000 from the previous week's total of 262,000. Analysts had expected a rise of 18,000 to 280,000. The data eased part of the worries regarding the health of the U.S. jobs market after the weak payroll data by ADP on Wednesday. For today investors will be watching closely on the Non-Farm Employment report for further indications on the status of the jobs market and the future monetary policy of the Fed. Meanwhile, the first look at UK election results are in and it looks like a big win for the conservatives with David Cameron hopeful of gaining a majority in the UK general election. As results came in, the British pound has surged higher against the dollar, rising by more than 1% against the dollar.
The euro fell 0.0084 or 0.74% to 1.1266 against the dollar in U.S. afternoon following a report by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday that said initial jobless claims rose by only 3,000 to 265,000 last week, below expectations for a 18,000 rise. For Friday the focus is shifted entirely on the Non-Farm Payrolls report where analysts forecast a 224,000 rise in jobs for April. In March, nonfarm jobs increased by only 126,000, as employment levels in major industries such as financial activities, government, manufacturing and wholesale trade remained relatively unchanged.
Pivot
1.1285
Support
1.117
1.111
1.1065
Resistance
1.1285
1.1325
1.139
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1.1285 with targets @ 1.117 & 1.111 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1.1285 look for further upside with 1.1325 & 1.139 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.
Gold prices moved slightly higher on Friday with investors buying on weekly lows and monitoring China and U.S. for further indications on where interest rates will move. Recent positive data on unemployment claims caused the U.S dollar to rise on Thursday and added significant pressures on the precious metal leading it to a second consecutive daily drop. Gold traders are expected to remain inactive for the day waiting on the sidelines for the Non-Farm Payrolls which is due to be announced at 12:30 GMT. If new jobs are announced lower than expected this could undermine the argument for an early rate increase and would benefit alternative investments such as gold.
Pivot
1188.5
Support
1177
1169.5
1160
Resistance
1188.5
1193
1200
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1188.5 with targets @ 1177 & 1169.5 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1188.5 look for further upside with 1193 & 1200 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1188.5 is resistance, likely decline to 1177.
OIL/USD
Crude oil prices fell sharply on Thursday after a strong recovery in the dollar, one day after surging to a five-month high. WTI crude oil had increased above $62 on Wednesday after strong supply data from the U.S. unexpectedly declined last week, significantly below expectations. Elsewhere, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh, speaking at an Energy Security Summit in Berlin appeared confident that sanctions will be lifted and his country would return to the markets and gain back its market share.
Energy traders await Friday's weekly rig count from oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) for further signs on supply levels.
Pivot
59.7
Support
58.4
57.85
56.55
Resistance
59.7
60.2
61.3
Scenario 1: Short positions below 59.7 with targets @ 58.4 & 57.85 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 59.7 look for further upside with 60.2 & 61.3 as targets.
Comment: As long as 59.7 is resistance, likely decline to 58.4.
DOW JONES
U.S. stocks closed higher Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining nearly 100 points, as investors look ahead to Friday's highly important jobs report for April. Thursday's gains came after two days of losses and were driven by the technology sector with both Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) posting an increase. This is an important week for the financial markets because of the market-moving nature of the U.S. employment report. The U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in March, marking the weakest pace of job growth since 2013.
Pivot
17585
Support
17585
17040
16330
Resistance
18290
18900
19200
Scenario 1: Long positions above 17585 with targets @ 18290 & 18900 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 17585 look for further downside with 17040 & 16330 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Shares of Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) closed in positive territory on Thursday, following almost 2 weeks of consecutive losses after comments by major market players citing the web search giant's improving efforts to monetize YouTube. Commenting at CNBC, major Google investor stated that Google's recent hire of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)'s Ruth Porat as its new CFO should soon prove to become a major gain for shareholders. Google's investments have always been diverse, ranging from your desktop to outer space but with the new CFO, the stock is said to receive some better capitalization off those investments.
Pivot
557
Support
529
522
515
Resistance
557
568
584.5
Scenario 1: Short positions below 557 with targets @ 529 & 522 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 557 look for further upside with 568 & 584.5 as targets.
Comment: As long as 557 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.