Home Depot Earnings Preview: Q4 Sales Seen Lower as Housing Market Stays Frozen

Home improvement retailer Home Depot (NYSE:HD) will report results Tuesday morning. Last quarter, the company matched analysts’ revenue forecasts with $41.35 billion in sales, up 2.8% year over year, but fell short on EBITDA estimates and posted a notable miss on EPS.

Analysts expect Home Depot’s revenue to fall 3.9% year over year this quarter, reversing the 14.1% gain it posted in the same quarter a year ago.

Key Highlights:

• The multiyear slowdown in housing has battered home improvement demand. Homeowners are more likely to undertake costly renovations when buying or selling, but high interest rates and elevated home prices have kept many buyers sidelined, reducing renovation activity.
• Home Depot is expected to see Q4 same-store sales slip 0.4% year over year and warns industry pressures may persist in 2026, though some analysts predict demand could rebound later this year.
• Investors and analysts had hoped lower rates would revive the housing and home-improvement markets, but that turnaround has not materialized and may still be several quarters away.
• At its December investor day, Home Depot said the industry headwinds dating back to 2023 will continue to suppress demand. “Looking forward to 2026, we anticipate these pressures will persist as we have not yet seen a catalyst for an inflection in housing activity,” CFO Richard McPhail said.
• Home Depot’s store visits averaged up 1.3% year over year from November through January (January up 2.7%), per Placer.ai, hinting at short-term momentum that Q4 earnings will reveal is storm-driven or the start of a broader industry turnaround.

Analysts Expectation:

• Piper Sandler kept Home Depot (HD) at "overweight" and cut its price target to $422 from $441.
• RBC Capital cut Home Depot’s price target to $363 (from $366) and kept a Sector Perform rating.
• Bernstein SocGen Group kept Home Depot (HD) at "market perform" and raised its price target to $381 from $362.

HD Q4 2025 earnings pre-market (6:00 am ET) Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Expected Move by Option Expiration:

Options flow shows a large net positive gamma at the 400 strike (+$6,081.217) and a net negative gamma at the 350 strike (-$3,881.122) across expiries from Feb 2026 to Dec 2028. The put/call ratio indicates mostly bearish bias for the next two contract expirations.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

• Home Depot has traded inside a large symmetrical triangle since October 2023, which began at 274.
• The first upside leg peaked in November 2024 at 439.
• The triangle’s third touch occurred at 326 in April 2025.
• Prices bounced after holding the 331–337 base late last year.
• To rally toward 392–398 (pre- or post-earnings), HD must hold the 369–365 base.
• A sustained breakout above 400 would target the 411–421 resistance zone.
• A breach below the 369–365 support would imply a decline toward 352–343.

Daily Candlestick Chart

HD Seasonality Chart:

Since 2007, HD has seen February close with 0.5% drop in 50% of years and March with a 1.6% gain in 58% of years.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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