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From Price-Discovery Market To 'Trade Optimism' Market

Published 04/05/2019, 01:36 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
DIA
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FXI
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SPY
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QQQ
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CL
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XME
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IWM
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XHB
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TLT
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XLE
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EWG
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XLF
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IYT
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GDX
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USO
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HDGE
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SMH
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ITB
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Does the market seem dull to you? It’s not your imagination. Just take a look at the volume of the SPY. We have gone from an organic, price-discovering market to one which just goes up half a percent, day after day, based on “trade talk optimism”. Apparently volume isn’t necessary:

Using the spiffy new version of SlopeCharts, I pulled down a bunch of ETFs (click on any for a bigger version). They are below and I’ve caption each of them with a few words. They are each marked as Green (bullish), Red (bearish), or Yellow (unclear).

Green: The DIA it has pushed above its neckline. It’s up to Friday’s job report at this point. Red: Germany is coming up against important resistance, but if it clears that first horizontal, the next target (the higher horizontal) is more formidable. Green: China has completed a cup with handle pattern Green: Precious metals miners have formed a powerful base Yellow: HDGE, the fund that shorts stocks, has reached a lifetime low (understandably). Red: Home construction is mashed up against two importance resistance lines Yellow: Small caps have been lagging the large caps; the red line is key resistance Yellow: iShares Transportation Average (NYSE:IYT) have been weaker than industrials; the price gap is still intact. Red: QQQ - as long as the “lower lows” stay intact Yellow: SMH - that trendline represents important resistance, and earnings season is coming Green: Semiconductors seem unstoppable these days Yellow: TLT - A terribly messy pattern; lifetime highs are closed, but this does not look poised to vault much higher than it already has Green: We have successfully tested the breakout so far; just need to stay above red line Yellow: USO - Encountering weakness recently; a break of the ascending trendline, and more important, a break of the grey horizontal beneath would send this much lower Red: Homebuilders have pushed up to major resistance Red: Energy companies seem very prone to downturn, and any weakness in crude oil will be exhibited more strongly with the oil companies themselves Yellow: XLF - we are range-bound; long-term direction is at the mercy of which of those horizontals gets broken Red: XME Long-term pattern still down, in spite of recent strength

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Latest comments

So what happened to all your bearish enthusiasm, Tim? Quietly gone, like the wind....
win&win
I from iran
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