Gold for Wednesday, April 15, 2015
In the last couple of days Gold has eased below the key $1200 level again where it is presently trading in a narrow range above $1190. Presently it seems gold has an attraction to the key $1200 level as every time it ventures away it returns quickly to trade right around it. A couple of weeks ago gold sprung to life surging higher away from the key $1200 level back to a seven week high above $1220 before easing back and finding some support at the key $1200 level to finish out last week. A few weeks ago gold eased a little for a few days to below $1185, although for the best part of the last few weeks gold has moved strongly off the support at $1150 and then found some new support from the $1200 level. It still has its eyes firmly on the key $1200 level and it will be interesting to see whether it can remain above this level and continue to receive support. Prior to the recent move, gold remained quite steady enjoying strong support from the $1150 level whilst some eyes would have been looking lower. The next obvious technical support level lower is around $1130, and if it was to move through this level, then it would be trading at multi-year lows and looking very bearish. When gold broke through the rock solid support level at $1200 recently, it opened itself up to some potential downside which was played out a couple of weeks ago.
Throughout the second half of February gold enjoyed rock solid support from the key $1200 level which held it up on numerous occasions. For about a month gold drifted steadily lower down to a one month low near the key $1200 level before finding the solid support at this key level. At the beginning of December gold eased lower away from the resistance level at $1240 yet again back down to below $1200. During the second half of November gold made repeated runs at the resistance level at $1200 failing every time, before finally breaking through strongly. Throughout the first half of November Gold enjoyed a strong resurgence back to the key $1200 level where it has met stiff resistance up until recently.
Throughout the second half of October gold fell very strongly and resumed the medium term down trend falling from above $1250 back down through the key $1240 level, down below $1200 to a multi year low near $1130. It spent a few days consolidating around $1160 after the strong fall which has allowed it to rally higher in the last couple of weeks. Earlier in October Gold ran into the previous key level at $1240, however it also managed to surge higher to a five week high at $1255. In late August Gold enjoyed a resurgence as it moved strongly higher off the support level at $1275, however it then ran into resistance at $1290. In the week prior, Gold had been falling lower back towards the medium term support level at $1290 however to finish out last week it fell sharply down to the previous key level at $1275.
Gold cut losses on Tuesday, as the dollar turned lower after U.S. retail sales and producer prices data came in weaker than expected, but prices remained below $1,200 an ounce on higher equities. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday retail sales increased 0.9 percent, below the 1 percent that economists polled by Reuters had forecast. Separately, the Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month. But in the 12 months through March, producer prices fell 0.8 percent, the biggest year-on-year decline since 2009. “Retail sales were under expectations… So we are seeing a short squeeze on the back of the dollar coming off,” Deutsche Boerse (XETRA:DB1Gn)’s MNI senior analyst Tony Walters said. Spot gold, which had fallen 1.2 percent to its weakest level in two weeks at $1,183.68 an ounce in earlier trade, cut declines to trade down 0.4 percent at $1,193.16 at 2:26 p.m. EDT (1826 GMT).
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
Gold April 15 at 00:45 GMT 1193.3 H: 1201.6 L: 1184.1
Gold Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1200 | 1150 | — | 1240 | 1300 | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Wednesday, Gold is trading in a very narrow range below $1200. Current range: trading right above $1190.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1200 and 1150.
• Above: 1240 and 1300.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for Gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for Gold has moved back to below 65% as it has eased lower back to below $1200 after its recent surge higher to above $1220. The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 00:30 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- 04:30 JP Capacity Utilisation (Feb)
- 04:30 JP Industrial Production (Final) (Feb)
- 09:00 EU Trade Balance (sa) (Feb)
- 11:45 EU ECB – Interest Rate
- 12:30 CA Manufacturing sales (Feb)
- 12:30 US Empire State Survey (Apr)
- 13:15 US Capacity utilisation (Mar)
- 13:15 US Industrial production (Mar)
- 13:30 EU ECB’s Draghi gives press conference after interest rate announcement
- 14:00 CA BoC interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report
- 14:00 CA BoC – Overnight Rate
- 14:00 US NAHB Builders survey (Apr)
- 20:00 US Net Long-term TICS Flows (Feb)
- WLD IEA release monthly oil market report