Iran rejects U.S. war proposal, says no talks before conditions met
The metals market continues to recoil from the big round number zones of gold $4000, silver $50, CDNX 1000, and GDXJ $100. Of course, nothing fundamentally has changed for gold…
It was the world’s greatest currency before the sell-off and it’s still the greatest now.
Government fiats are arguably evil, and certainly pathetic when compared to gold.
The gold price recoil is helping key oscillators recoup their cyclical usefulness. Stochastics (14,7,7 series) is down to the momentum zone of 50… and that’s a buy zone for gamblers.
RSI broke down from the rare broadening top formation that I recently highlighted and it’s starting to function normally again.
What about the head and shoulders top pattern… is it real or just a shape on the chart? That’s unknown, but it targets the $3600 area, which is just above the huge investor buy zone of $3500-$3200.
The exciting weekly chart. I’ve urged investors to be prepared to buy with “meat and potatoes” size at $3500, $3350, and $3200. That call is unchanged.
In gold (and markets in general), preparation to buy and sell at key zones is vastly more important than price predictions, because even the best market gurus often get their calls all wrong.
A mix of 30% prediction and 70% management of personal surprise is perhaps the wisest way to handle the supreme money that can only be gold.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, there’s no question that a massive C wave is in play. That wave may have ended at $4380, but it’s more likely that a lot of upside action lies ahead.
I’ve suggested that the C wave likely ends in the spring of 2026, and it could be related to the return of US inflation and a Fed that turns hawkish.
Wave D could be painful, but I doubt wave E ends until 2029, which is the 100th anniversary of the infamous 1929 stock market crash. That crash was followed with one of the most evil acts in the history of markets… the government’s confiscation of gold.
Further, the end of the great 2000-2029 bull is likely to be short-lived, like the end of the 2008 crash. A new bull cycle likely begins quickly from there and sees gold rise into the year 2060. That is when the 40year inflation cycle probably ends, a cycle that only began in 2020.
US fiat could be a decent investor buy in the spring of 2026, using profits from gold, silver, and miners, but for now it’s more of a play for gamblers and those who sold some gold and related positions for fiat at my earlier behest.
Those who sold could consider rebuying half back now and the other half at $3500-$3200… or on an exciting breakout over $4380!
What about the miners? The spectacular CDNX versus gold chart.
A look at the CDNX versus fiat short-term chart. There’s now a huge positive divergence between the CDNX and gold, silver, GDX, and GDXJ; the CDNX has held above last week’s lows while these other items have failed.
It seems surreal that the CDNX is now the metals market leader, but facts are facts, and this is a great one! I suggested investors prepare for a bullish flag-like drift at the neckline of this massive inverse H&S pattern, and that certainly appears to be what is in play now.
The outperformance of the CDNX is an incredibly positive sign for all the precious metal markets.
A look at the GDX senior miners ETF, the exciting daily chart. Gold has given back about half its gain from $3500, and that’s also the case for GDX.
In the past, GDX and associated senior miners would typically give back closer to 70% or more of their gains. This is another positive sign for the miners. With AISC coming in sub $2000 for a myriad of senior miners, $3900 gold is still a phenomenal price to get for this mighty metal, a metal they mine with well-deserved pride.
Note the action of the key Stochastics oscillator (14,7,7 series). It’s almost in the buy zone and if last night’s overnight action were to be factored in… it probably is in the buy zone now.
The long-term GDX versus gold chart. While gold is likely in the late stages of its Elliott Wave C, senior miners are probably only beginning theirs! It’s not likely to end until 1929.
Western gold bugs are a special breed. Gold functions not only as their personal central bank, but in many cases as their de facto government too. Dips in the price will occur, but gold will continue to reign supreme as the greatest asset of them all!
