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Gold rallied last week and reached resistance zone extended to $1405. My long-term forecast remains bullish. But I am not a buyer at this levels, as I expect significant pullback before next strong leg up. Gold has probably gotten a bit ahead of itself. At least market has to consolidate to build enough momentum to continue uptrend.
I think traders have to pay their attention to USD index to make short-term forecast for gold. I see possibility of pullback in DXY to 91 - 92 range. If that happens we may see deeper pullback in Gold. The most safety way to trade Gold now is to wait for pullback and take buy signals at least untill we will see significant changes in fundamental factors or DXY trend reversal.
One more indicator of coming deep pullback in Gold is COT data, that shows big players increased short positions in Gold. I don't like to forecast pullback levels, but I will not be surprised if we will visit 1280 area given enough time.
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