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FX Speculators Raise US Dollar Bearish Bets For 2nd Week Euro Bets At Record High

Published 04/22/2018, 02:37 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

US Dollar COT Large Speculators Sentiment Vs UUP ETF

US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $-23.42 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their aggregate bearish bets for the US dollar this week. Meanwhile, in the individual currency contracts this week, speculators pushed their bullish bets to a new record high level.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-23.42 billion as of Tuesday April 17th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-0.65 billion from the $-22.77 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The speculative aggregate bearish positions rose for a second straight week and have now remained above the $-20 billion level for a fifth straight week. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar position has fallen from a bearish level of $-4.62 billion to this week’s bearish level of $-23.42 billion.

Weekly Change In US Dollar Speculators Aggregate Positions

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual currency contracts data for this week saw a notable change in the euro positioning.

Euro speculative bets rose higher for a second week this week and brought the overall net position (+151,476 contracts) to a new all-time high position. This week’s record surpasses the previous record that was recorded on January 31st with a total standing of +148,742 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (4,013 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (4,686 contracts), Swiss franc (223 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,348 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (4,776 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the Japanese yen (-170 weekly change in contracts), Australian dollar (-7,359 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-377 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EuroFX: COT Futures Large Traders vs EUR/USD

British Pound Sterling:

GBP: COT Futures Large Traders v GBP/USD

Japanese Yen:

JPY: COT Futures Large Traders vs JPY/USD

Swiss Franc:

CHF: COT Futures Large Traders vs CHF/USD

Canadian Dollar:

CAD: COT Futures Large Traders vs CAD/USD

Australian Dollar:

AUD: COT Futures Large Traders vs AUD/USD

New Zealand Dollar:

NZD: COT Futures Large Traders vs NZD/USD

Mexican Peso:

MXN: COT Futures Large Traders vs MXN/USD

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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