Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives’ withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. On the other hand, last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.
1.085 area is a very important resistance.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0856
2nd Resistance: 1.0950
1st Support: 1.0782
2nd Support: 1.0679
EUR
Recent Facts:
31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected
31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected
1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected
9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected
10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected
14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected
15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected
21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected
1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected
2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations
3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected
8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected
9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)
14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected
24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected
1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)
3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected
14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected
15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected
16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected
27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected
28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected
3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting "would likely be appropriate" insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.
8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected
10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected
15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected
15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen
16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected
24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)
Good UK Retail Sales data, on the other hand the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.
Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.
UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations.
1.2530 very important resistance started the pullback. Now eyes on 1.23 area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200
GBP
Recent Facts:
4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program
20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected
2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected
15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected
17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected
15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected
16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates
21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected
23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
The U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected and the U.S. House of Representatives’ withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.
A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.
Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected though.
Price stuck against our 0.7735, as said in the previous commentaries. It reacted fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7585
2nd Support: 0.7506
AUD
Recent Facts:
1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts
3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected
8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President
9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected
19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global
9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected
1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected
7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China
8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017
16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected
28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit
1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.