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European Market Update: Banks Trading Mixed - March 21, 2013

Published 03/21/2013, 07:51 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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Major European PMI readings all miss expectations; UK retail sales handily beats consensus; Spain has solid bond auction results

Notes/Observations

China March HSBC Flash PMI Manufacturing beats expectation,s and registers 5th. straight month of expansion,

Political standoff in Australia came to a head. After weeks of tension, PM Gillard survived an uncontested party leadership challenge.

New Zealand Q4 GDP registers highest reading in three years.

Japan February adj Merchandise Trade Balance registers largest deficit on record.

Hope remained that Cyprus will be able to come up with a new plan to get a bailout; "Plan B" would involve some Russian aid and a reduced levy on bank deposits.

ECB to maintain ELA for Cyprus until Monday March 25; ELA can only be considered thereafter if EU/IMF program is in place that ensures solvency of banks

Major European PMI data disappoints; France Services was lowest services reading since March 2009.

UK February Retail Sales easily exceeds expectations; help GBP trade at 2-week highs.

Spain bond auction results solids; sold above indicated range at lower yields and improved bid-to-covers.

FOMC Statement: QE at $45B Treasuries and $40B MBS a month; Continue asset purchase until labor outlook improves substantially; Continue to see downside risks to economy; See moderate economic growth following pause late last yr; Labor market shows signs of improvement; Jobless rate remains elevated; Expects highly accommodative policy will remain appropriate for considerable time after asset purchase program ends and economy strengthens

Economic Data

(JP) Japan January All Industry Activity Index M/M: -1.4% v -1.4%e

(JP) Japan February Supermarket Sales Y/Y: -5.5% v -4.7% prior

(CH) Swiss February Trade Balance (CHF): 2.1B v 2.0Be; Real Exports M/M: -2.6% v +3.7% prior; Real Imports M/M: -5.4% v -1.3% prior.

(JP) Japan February Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -4.7% v -0.9% prior.

(FR) France March Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 43.9 v 44.2e; PMI Services: 41.9 v 44.0e; lowest reading since Mar 2009)

(HU) Hungary January Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.5% v 4.7%e

(DK) Denmark February Retail Sales: +0.3% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -4.0% v -1.9% prior.

(CH) Swiss February M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.8% v 9.4% prior.

(EU) ECB: €686M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €12M prior; €130.53B parked in deposit facility vs. €133.6B prior.

(DE) Germany March Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 48.9 v 50.5e; PMI Services: 51.6 v 55.0e

(NL) Netherlands February Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.6%e

(NL) Netherlands February House Price Index M/M: +1.2% v -2.9% prior; Y/Y: -8.3% v -9.6% prior

(HK) Hong Kong February CPI Composite Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.0%e

(HK) Hong Kong Q4 Current Account Balance: $9.6B v 23.8B prior; Overall Balance of Payments: $94.3Bv $37.9B prior.

(EU) Euro Zone March Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 46.6 v 48.2e; PMI Services: 46.5 v 48.2e; PMI Composite: 46.5 v 48.2e

(GR) Greece January Current Account: -€222M v -€534M prior.

(UK) February Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: 1.9% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 1.2%e

(UK) February Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: 2.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 0.5%e

(UK) February Public Finances (PSNCR): -£1.5B v -£12.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: £2.8B v £8.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: £4.4B v £8.2Be

(PL) Central/Eastern European March ZEW Indicator: 49.9 v 36.3 prior.

(AT) Austria WIFO quarterly economic forecasts: Maintained 2013 and 2014 GDP at 1.0% and 1.8% respectively.

Fixed Income:

(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold sold total €4.51B vs. €3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2015, 2018 and 2023 Bonds.

Sold €1.156B in March 2.75% 2015 Bono bond; Avg Yield 2.2275% v 2.540% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.0x v 3.69x prior; Maximum Yield 2.306% v 2.570% prior; Tail bps v 3.0bps prior.

Sold €1.032B in January 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 3.557% v 3.572% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.6x v 2.3x prior; Maximum Yield 3.579% v 3.612% prior; Tail bps v 4.0bps prior.

Sold €2.325B in 5.4% 2023 bonds; Avg Yield 4.898% v 4.917% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.3x prior; Max Yield 4.919% v 4.957% prior; Tails bps v 4.0bps bps

(FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €7.99B vs. €7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2015 and 2018 - Sells €5.003B in 0.25% Nov 2015 Oats; Avg Yield 0.32% v 0.41% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 3.3x prior.

Sells €2.99B in 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 1.12% v 0.89% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.54x v 1.995x prior.

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

FTSE 100 -0.80% at 6,381, DAX -0.90% at 7,928, CAC-40 -1.1% at 3,787, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 8,351, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 15,961, SMI -0.80% at 7,783, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,546.

European equity markets are broadly lower on continued uncertainty related to Cyprus, as the ECB agreed to extend its extend its emergency support measures for Cypriot banks until Monday, March 25. Weaker than expected PMI data from Germany and France has also weighed on markets. European banks are currently trading mixed, while resource related firms are mostly lower.

UK movers [Lamprell +6% (new CFO), Premier Farnell +2.5% (FY profits and sales rose y/y), Premier Oil +2% (FY profits and production rose y/y); McBride -11% (profit warning), Mecom -4.5% (FY results declined y/y)]

Germany movers [Joyou +11% (revised shareholder structure), Brenntag +3.5% (FY results above ests), Siemens +1.5% (broker commentary), Praktiker +1% (FY loss narrowed), Beiersdorf +0.50% (broker commentary); Kontron -7% (cut dividend), Lanxess -5% (Q1 outlook), Gildemeister -4.5% (speculation related cross-shareholding agreement in Japan), SAP -2% (disappointing results from Oracle), Talanx -2% (FY profits below ests), ThyssenKrupp -1.5% (broker commentary)]

France movers [Eurotunnel +2% (raised dividend by 50%), Hermes +0.50% (FY profits above ests)]

Switzerland movers [Novartis +1% (data presentation on Gilenya); Kuoni -1%(swung to FY net loss)]

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