CAD/JPY’s target from the March 14 posted trade from 80.58 was 84.71 and 85.27. CAD/JPY dead stopped at 85.24 for a 469 pip move. USD/CAD dropped 596 pips overall from 1.3140’s.
The overall question to currency markets is what’s next and where are we going. Currency markets presently lack leadership and a leading currency pair to decide the next moves.
Most of the 28 currency pairs among the G10 are settled into dead ranges and next trades to meet 150 to 200 pip targets are becoming harder to find. The muted response from yesterday’s Fed minutes offered in real time exactly what dead ranges mean.
Responsibility to the where next question must come from the 7 and now into week 8 range compression problem between EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
As leading cross pair by most widely traded among all cross pairs on the planet since 2001, EUR/JPY is deeply affected by EUR/USD and USD/JPY’s range dilemma. Currency markets are screaming for a USD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY breakout to see prices in many currency pairs to get moving again.
EUR/JPY’s settled yet small ranges for example affected CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY. A 150 and 200 pip move in the above pairs presently doesn’t exist as next moves lack clarity.
Leadership must and will come from EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY.
On the USD front, USD/CAD will struggle to move higher and remains in sell rally mode while USD/CHF trades in dead ranges. USD/JPY must lead the way.
EUR/USD is clearly responsible to drive further prices in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GBP/USD.
EUR/CAD as the strangest currency pair on the planet will lead the way as speculation without a view into AUD/CAD, GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD.
Severe overbought in EUR/CAD leads speculation. Least concern is AUD/CAD as even yearly moves dated to the 1990’s never saw 500 pip years.
EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD still offer opportunities as well as EUR/NZD and AUD/NZD. CAD/CHF and GBP/CHF remain in dead ranges.
Overall in the past month, the vast majority of trades derived from cross pairs and its speculation again the majors in EUR/USD and USD/JPY to now break and lead the cross pairs.
Remaining pairs to view and possible trades are GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, NZD/CAD, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and try again for NZD/JPY. If nothing exist then maybe USD in central Europe in PLN or USD/ZAR, INR.
EUR/JPY is fast approaching its tops at 133.11 and above 133.11 then a short only strategy exists. The vital break point below is located at 131.95 therefore range becomes 133.11 to 131.95. Upon a 131.95 break then range becomes 131.95 to 131.18.
EUR/JPY should properly trade between 131.58 to 131.18 but 131.95 must first break. The 130’s are many and rough first at 130.94, 130.81, 130.70, 130.60 and 130.29. What holds EUR/JPY from a deep dive is 129.52 and 128.65.
Short is the only strategy yet upon a 131.95 break, caution to 131.18. EUR/JPY like all JPY crosses offers quick pip trades until the EUR/USD and USD/JPY situation resolves itself by economic release or un forseen outside event.
Brian Twomey