Pre-Open Market Analysis
The Emini has rallied for 4 days from just above the gap above the February 11 high. The bulls hope this is a resumption of the 2019 bull trend.
Today is Friday. This week traded below last week’s low and above last week’s high. This week is therefore an outside up candlestick on the weekly chart. Traders see it as a buy signal bar for next week.
But, there has been no pullback in the bear channel on the weekly chart in 5 weeks. Therefore, the odds are that the first reversal up will not get far. Consequently, the buy signal will probably only lead to another week or two of higher prices. There will then likely be a test back down and an attempt to close the February 11 gap.
The bears want a lower high and then a selloff that will close that gap. After a strong 4 day rally, the bears will probably need at least a micro double top. Traders assume that the Emini will not pull back for more than a day or two before beginning at least a small 2nd leg up.
Today is Friday so weekly support and resistance are important, especially in the final hour. The most important price is last week’s high. The bulls want the week to close above last week’s high as a sign of strength. That would increase the chance of higher prices next week. The bears always want the opposite. However, even if today sells off, the week will still be a big bull trend bar on the weekly chart.
Overnight Emini Globex Trading
The Emini was up ahead of today’s unemployment report, but sold off on the report. It is currently up only 1 point.
Because the daily chart is overbought, there is an increased chance of profit taking today. It might have begun with yesterday’s late climactic reversal down. Therefore, there is an increased chance of a bear trend day and a reduced chance of a bull trend day.
Furthermore, last week’s high is a magnet, especially in the final hour. Today might get back there early in the day and then oscillate around it for the rest of the day.
Yesterday’s Setups
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.