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ECB Not Expected To Cut Rates

By Trade The NewsMarket OverviewNov 08, 2012 06:22AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/ecb-not-expected-to-cut-rates-142822
ECB Not Expected To Cut Rates
By Trade The News   |  Nov 08, 2012 06:22AM ET
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ECB expected to talk up the potential of the OMT rather than lean towards rate cuts at today's policy meeting; peripheral yields rise in session

Economic Data
(CH) Swiss Oct Unemployment Rate: 2.9% v 2.9%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.0% v 3.0%e

(ID) Indonesia Central Bank leaves Reference Rate unchanged at 5.75%; as expected; ( ninth consecutive pause)

(DE) Germany Sept Current Account: €16.3B v €10.8Be; Trade Balance: €16.9B v €15.5Be; Exports M/M: -2.5% v -1.5%e; Imports M/M: -1.6% v -0.4%e

(FR) France Sept Trade Balance: -€5.0B v -€5.0Be

(CZ) Czech Oct Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.4%e

(HU) Hungary Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: €739.1M v €805.0Me

(TR) Turkey Sept Industrial Production WDA M/M: +3.9% v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.2% v 0.9% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 6.2% v 1.5%e

(TW) Taiwan Oct Total Trade Balance: $3.3B v $3.3Be; Total Exports Y/Y: -1.9% v +2.0%e; Total Imports Y/Y: -1.8% v +1.9%e

(EU) ECB: €502M borrowed in overnight loan facility €483M prior; €255.7B parked in deposit facility vs. €253.1B prior

(NL) Netherlands Oct CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.3% prior

(NL) Netherlands Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.8% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y:3.3% v 2.5% prior

(NL) Netherlands Sept Industrial Production M/M: % v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: % v -0.6% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: % v 1.3% prior

(SE) Sweden Oct Average House Prices (SEK): 1.921M v 2.106M prior

(ZA) South Africa Sept Gold Production Y/Y: -11.1% v 0.4% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: -8.3% v -4.5%e

(IT) Bank of Italy reported Sept bad loans +15.3% y/y; Deposits +5.7% y/y

(IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Oct Balance-Sheet Aggregates: ECB funding to banks in Italy: €276.5B vs. €276.7B prior

(MA) Malaysia Central Bank left its Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%; as expected

(GR) Greece Aug Unemployment Rate: 25.4% v 24.8% prior

Fixed income
(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €4.76B vs. indicated range of €3.5-4.5B in 2015, 2018 and 2032 bonds

Sold €992M in 3.75% 2015 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 3.660% v 3.956% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.83x v 1.98x prior; Maximum Yield 3.678% v 4.028% prior; Tail bps 1.8bpsv 7.2bps prior

Sold €3.04B in new 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 4.680% v 4.193% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.57x v 2.9x prior; Maximum Yield 4.769%; Tail 8.9bps v 7.2bps prior

Sold €730M in 5.75% 2032 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 6.328% v 4.777% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.11x v 1.43x prior; Maximum Yield 6.366% v 4.791% prior; Tail 3.8bps

(SE) Sweden sold SEK750M in 0.25% I/L 2022 bond; Yield 0.0162%

(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF45B indicted in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield 5.97% v 6.01% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.65x v 2.10x prior

(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF7.5B vs. HUF 5.0B indicated in Dec 2015 Floating Rate Bonds; Avg Price 97.58

Notes/Observations
Obama re-election shifts focus to fiscal cliff. DJIA registered its largest one-day decline in one year coupled with first close below 200 day m.a. in almost a year.

New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 13 year highs. Australia employment was slightly better than expectations for 2nd consecutive month.

Japan Sept Adj Current Account Balance registers its first deficit since 1981

Greece austerity vote passes with 153 votes in its 300 Parliament. Afterwards there were party expulsions, violent protests; massive strikes erase shine very quickly.

18th party congress starts in China today

Spain sells above its indicated amount in 3-tranche bond auction; has completed 100% of its 2012 funding needs

Equities
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.20% at 5,800, DAX +0.25% at 7,251, CAC-40 0.10% at 3,412, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 7,626, FTSE MIB -1.1% at 15,122, SMI +0.25% at 6,713, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,388

European equity markets are trading mixed following the sharp losses seen during the prior session. The peripheral equity indices (Greece, Italy, Spain) have underperformed, while the DAX has had the best performance. Key events on today's session have included corporate earnings and Spain's debt auction (sold 2015, 2018 and 2032 bonds). Also, data out of Italy showed that bad loans in the banking sector continued to rise in Sept.

Looking ahead, markets are expected to focus on the upcoming rate decisions from the ECB and BoE. Additionally, the impact of the possible "fiscal cliff" on the US has remained as a topic of interest following the recent presidential elections. In terms of specific sectors, banks are mixed. Underperformers in the sector include Commerzbank, UBS and Unicredit. Resource related firms are mixed, ahead of tomorrow's data out of China (including industrial production and retail sales for Oct).

Siemens [SIE.DE] has moved higher by over 3%, as the firm reported better than expected Q4 results. Commerzbank [CBK.DE] has underperformed most of its European peers, after guiding its Q4 operating profit to decline q/q. Adidas [ADS.DE] has lost over 3% on weaker than expected FY12 net profit guidance. Deutsche Telecom [DTE.DE] has traded marginally higher (issued Q3 results, confirmed FY outlook and dividend), Deutsche Post [DPW.DE] is lower by over 0.50% (reported Q3 results) and HeidelbergCement [HEI.DE] has gained over 3%(reported Q3 results).

In France, EADS [EAD.FR] is little changed following the release of its Q3 results. Luxury retailer Hermes [RMS.FR] has gained over 3%, as the firm raised its FY sales growth forecast. SocGen [GLE.FR] is trading higher as the firm reported better than expected Q3 results, supported by its corporate/investment banking (CIB) unit. Software/consulting firm CapGemini [GAP.FR] has declined over 2% after releasing its Q3 sales figures.In the UK, shares of engineering/construction firm Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] have moved lower by over 10%, after the company warned on its FY12 profits. Specialty chemicals company Yule Catto [YULC.UK] is higher by more than 8%, as the company reaffirmed its FY forecast.

In other movers in the UK, William Morrison [MRW.UK] has traded lower by over 1% (reported Q3 sales, announced CEO change), shares of Aviva [AV.UK] are slightly higher (issued Q3 update) and Cable & Wireless Communications [CWC.UK] has moved up over 3% (reported H1 results). Dutch insurer Aegon [AGN.NL] is trading higher by more than 3% on better than expected Q3 results. Shares of Swiss Re [SREN.CH] are higher by over 2%, as the firm became the latest European reinsurer to report better than expected quarterly results.

FTSE 100 movers (ENRC -3.9%, Tate & Lyle -1.5%; WM Morrison -0.90%; Burberry Group +2.7%, Randgold +2.2%, Johnson Matthey +1.9%, Tullow Oil +1.7%, Croda +1.5%)

CAC-40 movers (Cap Gemini -3.3%, Renault -1.7%, Vinci -1.5%, EDF -1.4%, EADS -0.90%; Vallourec +5.3%, Alcatel-Lucent +3%, Alstom +2%, BNP +1.5%, Danone +1.4%)

DAX movers (Adidas -3.4%, Commerzbank -3.3%, RWE -1.2%; Siemens +3.7%; HeidelbergCement +3.6%, Bayer +1.3%)

IBEX-35 movers (Bankia -3.5%, Abertis -2.7%, CaixaBank -2.5%, Gamesa -2.3%, Banco de Sabadell -2.3%; Mapfre +1.8%)

FTSE MIB (Pirelli -4.4%, Tenaris -3.6%, Banca Monte dei Paschi -2.9%, Mediaset -1.9%, Finmeccanica -1.6%; Lottomatica +2.9%)

SMI movers (SwissRe +1.7%, ABB +1.2%, Swatch +1.2%; Swisscom -1.7%, UBS -1.4%)
ECB Not Expected To Cut Rates
 

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ECB Not Expected To Cut Rates

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