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Dollar Snaps Back As Yields Recover

By Kathy LienForexAug 29, 2019 04:53PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/dollar-snaps-back-as-yields-recover-200460066
Dollar Snaps Back As Yields Recover
By Kathy Lien   |  Aug 29, 2019 04:53PM ET
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Kathy Lien, Managing Director Of FX Strategy For BK Asset Management

Daily FX Market Roundup August 29, 2019

The US dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies Thursday with the exception of the loonie. The move was driven by conciliatory rhetoric from China, better-than-expected US data and the first uptick in Treasury yields in a week. Second-quarter US GDP growth was unrevised but personal consumption was stronger than expected, rising 4.7% against an initial estimate of 4.3%. US and China’s trade relationship broke down completely 2 weeks ago but over the past week, soothing rhetoric is coming from both sides. President Trump talked about productive “calls” with China and China said they did not want to escalate trade tensions and are preparing for bilateral meetings this month. As our colleague Boris Schlossberg pointed out, “the standoff between China and the US remains fluid and still highly unpredictable given the mixed messages this summer but the conciliatory tone out of Beijing suggests that there is a growing internal pressure to ease the conflict as the economic burden is clearly starting to take its toll. While markets hold out hope that the war of attrition between China and the US may have finally pushed both leaders to consider a more flexible negotiating posture,” we advise traders to remain skeptical until one side suspends tariffs and ideally a trade deal is signed.

Meanwhile investors sold euros every day this week and now EUR/USD is at the cusp of testing 1.10. According to the latest economic reports, business confidence is lower, inflation is lower and job losses were reported for the fourth month in a row. Last month, the Bundesbank said the country could very likely fall into a technical recession in Q3 and pessimism is now deepening. While a test of 1.10 is possible, a break may have to wait. The currency is deeply oversold and the one good news that came out of the G7 Summit is that Trump is not looking at tariffs on European autos at this time. Italy’s political situation appears to have turned a corner as well. Two weeks ago, Italy’s Prime Minister resigned and called for snap elections. On Thursday, he rose victorious when he was chosen to lead the new coalition. In the last government, Conte was overshadowed and pressured by his deputy Matteo Salvini and with Salvini’s downfall, the hope is that Conte II will be able to lead a “more united, inclusive” Italy.

The worst-performing currency was the New Zealand dollar, which fell on the back of weaker business confidence. ANZ’s index of business sentiment dropped to its lowest level in 11 years. AUD/NZD benefitted significantly from the widening gap between New Zealand and Australia’s economic performance with the pair rising to its strongest level in 3 months. AUD/NZD could move higher next week if the RBA remains neutral.

Dollar Snaps Back As Yields Recover
 

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Dollar Snaps Back As Yields Recover

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Comments (7)
Yakubu Mondollar
Yakubu Mondollar Jan 28, 2021 5:18AM ET
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I wanna follow you guys but I don't know the step, please can you teach me?
Kamran Ali
Kamran Ali Aug 31, 2019 12:39AM ET
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eurusd pair next week update
Strela Fxxx
Strela Fxxx Aug 29, 2019 8:06PM ET
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ECB missiles coming!
ramon sixto portillo
ramon sixto portillo Aug 29, 2019 6:06PM ET
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...but sudenly the next trump tweet...
Marita Karin
Marita Karin Aug 29, 2019 6:06PM ET
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forget about tweet this time, he'll sing along.... wkwkwk
Bo Htein
Bo Htein Aug 29, 2019 5:37PM ET
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Thanks Sis
Green Greta
GreenGreta Aug 29, 2019 5:37PM ET
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Trump wills ***it up and not agree to china's terms. Expect a massive drop Imo tomorrow or early next week.
Uz IL
Uz IL Aug 29, 2019 4:30PM ET
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Thanks, Kathy.
 
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