Daily Market Outlook 14.05.2014

EUR/USD

The euro remains under pressure, with fresh leg lower, following brief consolidation, probing levels below 1.37, psychological support. Technicals are negative on all timeframes, with price action establishing below daily cloud that keeps at the downside, looking for final push to key short-term support at 1.3670. Break here to confirm an end of corrective 1.3670/1.3992 phase and signal double-top formation, bearish pattern, which may trigger more significant retracement of larger uptrend that commenced from 1.2042, 2012 low. Corrective actions are seen limited with initial barrier at 1.3770, previous consolidation top and rallies to be capped at 1.38 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of the downmove from 1.3992 to 1.3688. Any break above here would delay immediate bears.

Res: 1.3773; 1.3800; 1.3840; 1.3876
Sup: 1.3688; 1.3670; 1.3642; 1.3619





EUR/JPY

Near-term corrective attempt off fresh low at 139.98 stalled on approach to strong 141 resistance and subsequent slide weakened near-structure again, as the price re-tested important 140.00 support. With overall outlook being negative, scope is seen for final break below 140 support, also 50% of 136.21/143.78 upleg and daily cloud base, to confirm reversal and open next targets at 139.10, Fibonacci 61.8% and 139.00, round figure. Corrective rallies face strong resistance and should be capped here, while clear break higher is required to put bears on hold and allow for stronger correction.

Res: 140.50; 141.00; 141.15; 141.42
Sup: 140.00; 139.87; 139.10; 139.00





GBP/USD

Cable continues to trend lower and posted marginally lower low at 1.6817, approaching psychological 1.68 support, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6464/1.6995 upleg. Near-term studies are negative and favor further downside, while bulls are still in play on the larger timeframe that requires reversal above 1.6760 higher platform, to maintain the structure in positive mode for fresh attempt higher and repeated attack at psychological 1.70 barrier. Extension below 1.6760, however, to sideline bulls, confirm reversal and open 1.6730, 50% retracement and 1.6700, round figure, in extension.

Res: 1.6885; 1.6900; 1.6927; 1.6973
Sup: 1.6817; 1.6800; 1.6760; 1.6730





USD/JPY

The pair still holds positive tone, established on a bounce off 101.42 double bottom and break above 102 barrier. Further upside would look for 102.70, mid-point of 104.11/101.31 fall/ daily cloud top and 103, range top. Clear break above 103 barrier is required to break above 101.20/103 congestion and resume recovery. Current corrective action off fresh high at 102.35, was so contained at 102, now acting as support and being reinforced by 20/55 bullish cross. Any break lower may sideline near-term bulls and increase downside risk.

Res: 102.35; 102.78; 103.00; 103.38
Sup: 102.00; 101.84; 101.42; 101.31





AUD/USD

The pair regained positive near-term tone after pullback from 0.9393 high found support at 0.9332 and fresh strength eventually broke above psychological 0.94 barrier, to complete cup and holder reversal pattern. Overall bullish tone sees test of key 0.9460 barrier as likely scenario, as the price action continues to move higher, above main bull-trendline. Clear break above 0.9460 is required to confirm bullish resumption and open psychological 0.9500 barrier next. Corrective dips should not exceed 0.9360, Fibonacci 61.8% of entire rally from 0.9332, to keep bulls in play.

Res: 0.9439; 0.9450; 0.9500; 0.9541
Sup: 0.9378; 0.9360; 0.9345; 0.9332




AUD/NZD

The pair consolidates strong gains off 1.0644 low that peaked 1.0870 so far. Completion of 1.0868/1.0644 downleg sees scope for final push towards key 1.0907 barrier, to fully retrace corrective phase and signal fresh strength on a break higher, also to mark an end of short-term range trading. Initial support lies at 1.0800, while any deeper dips are expected to be contained by 1.0770, bullish 20/55 SMA’s crossover., to avoid further weakening and return to range-trade.

Res: 1.0907; 1.0950; 1.1000; 1.1032
Sup: 1.0800; 1.0770; 1.0730; 1.0700





XAU/USD

Spot gold remains in near-term sideways mode, despite false breaks lower (1277) and higher (1303). Overall tone is negatively aligned and keeps the downside vulnerable, as the price establishes below the first breakpoint at 1300, reinforced by 20/200 SMA death cross. The latter and 1315 lower platform, reinforced by daily 55SMA, is expected to cap recovery attempts, ahead of fresh push lower. Break below fresh low at 1277, to open next supports at 1273/68. Conversely, fresh gains above 1315 barrier to delay bears, however, regain of key near-term barrier and recent range top at 1330, is required to neutralize bears and signal stronger recovery.

Res: 1298; 1303; 1306; 1315
Sup: 1290; 1284; 1277; 1273