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Could Li Auto Become the New Tesla?

Published 03/06/2024, 02:13 AM
Updated 05/22/2024, 04:39 AM
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Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) reported better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter and its forecast for the first quarter of 2004 was quite impressive, sending the stock soaring. Not only did it outperform competitors in the start-up electric vehicle market, including NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV), but it also expects to deliver between 100,000 and 103,000 electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2004. The company is targeting a massive full-year delivery volume of 800,000 electric vehicles, the CEO said earlier this month. With an increase in vehicle margins in the previous quarter, I believe Li Auto is a solid bet in the Chinese electric vehicle market that has the potential to outperform in FY 2024.

The company stands out from other electric vehicle manufacturers because of its impressive growth in deliveries. According to forecasts, by fiscal year 2024, Li Auto could surpass the total number of deliveries in its history. In 2023, the company achieved record deliveries and revenues, and it is possible that it will reach 800,000 electric vehicles delivered in 2024. With a 182 percent increase from the previous year, Li Auto delivered a total of 376,030 electric vehicles in 2023. In comparison, NIO delivered 160,038 vehicles with an annual growth of 31%, while XPeng delivered 141,601 (up 17%). In other words, in FY2023 Li Auto grew about six times faster than NIO and 11 times faster than XPeng.

It was confirmed in December that Li Auto plans to start delivering its latest product, the Li Mega multipurpose electric vehicle, in March 2024. The unveiling of the Li Mega EV at last year's Guangzhou Auto Show was a success, with 10,000 reservations received within the first two hours after reservations opened. With a price tag of less than 600,000 Chinese yuan ($84,500), this could lead to a greater acceleration in Li Auto's revenue.
Li Auto Inc Fair Value

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From the overview, you can easily see that the stock is in good condition and the Fair Value is US$57, with a potential upside of 50%!

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An excellent opportunity for my investment is certificate CH1314029567, with LI AUTO and NIO as underlyings. It has a term of 24 months, an autocall mechanism that activates 6 months after issuance, and a continuous barrier of 50 percent, which guarantees protection of my capital. If the price does not fall below the barrier at maturity, I will receive 100% repayment of principal and coupons. In addition, this certificate offers monthly coupons equal to 1.50% of the total investment for a total return of 18%.

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