Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Commodities Week Ahead: Gold Battles Free Fall; Oil Aims For $50

By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)CommoditiesNov 30, 2020 04:11AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/commodities-week-ahead-gold-battles-free-fall-oil-aims-for-50-200546237
Commodities Week Ahead: Gold Battles Free Fall; Oil Aims For $50
By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)   |  Nov 30, 2020 04:11AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

This week’s prize riddle in commodities will be figuring out when and where the freefall in gold ends.

The other issue will be determining how quickly oil will get to $50 a barrel—and whether it’ll stay there or reverse as markets dial back some of the overrun in risk sentiment over potential COVID-19 vaccines.

Case in point: Citigroup sees support for gold emerging at $1,700 an ounce—about $75 below where it is currently trading—while Goldman Sachs projects oil will hit $65 per barrel in 2021.

Gold has lost just over $300, or 15%, from its August record high and is now below $1,800 an ounce. For the most ardent fans of the yellow metal, this would have been an unthinkable situation just a few months back, when $3,000 or more was being forecast for gold before the end of 2020, from a confluence of COVID-19-related stimulus spending and dollar weakness.

Gold Could Break Below $1,700 In Worst Case

After three straight weeks of losses, US gold futures opened Asian trading for a new week down again, shedding about 0.5% by 2:00 AM ET (0700 GMT) to hover at under $1,780.

Gold Daily
Gold Daily

Some analysts think in the worst case scenario, gold could lose its $1,700 support. Sunil Kumar Dixit at SK Dixit Charting in Kolkata, India, is among those bracing for this eventuality. He says:

“Failure to hold above the critical support of $1,748 may cause further downside in gold towards $1,688 and $1,660 which will be a potentially strong and hard floor for yet another bull run after healthy consolidation.”

US crude’s West Texas Intermediate benchmark was also down, trading at just under $45 per barrel, or about 2% lower. One reason for oil’s slide: Investor jitters ahead of a meeting of producer group OPEC+ to decide whether to extend large output cuts to balance global markets.

After record supply cuts this year, the 13-member Saudi-steered Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with 10 allies led by Russia, originally planned to raise output by 2 million barrels per day from January 2021. Such a hike would be about 2% of global consumption.

But a good portion of the OPEC+ group is understood to want to keep production where it is now, to preserve the market’s upward momentum.

Goldman said that its base-case scenario was a 3-month delay to prevent a return to a global oil surplus through the first quarter of 2021, and not all of OPEC+ producers appeared onboard for this.

Oil Still In Bull Market, Aiming For $50 Per Barrel

Despite Monday’s drop, oil is in a bull market, having gained well above 20% from a low hit four weeks ago.

Both WTI and global crude benchmark Brent appear to have the potential to test $50 a barrel. Back in April, one couldn’t have even imagined something like this happening before the end of the year. Then, US crude was at minus $40 as the coronavirus pandemic induced a kind of gloom on the long-term future of travel.

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

Oil and gold are both where they are for one reason: A rash of potential COVID-19 vaccine development news over the past three weeks.

Oil is being bought on the promise that the pandemic will be curbed over time, meaning a return to a life as we once knew it, that could result in more mobility and travel and, thus, more demand for oil.

Gold is being sold on the expectation that the recovering global economy will continue to ratchet up appetite for risk assets like stocks and oil, reducing the need for safe-havens.

Buy The Rumor, Sell The Fact

But markets, as always, buy the rumor and sell the fact.

Coronavirus infections, hospitalizations and deaths are still exploding in the United States and there could still be glitches in the final stage of potential vaccine approvals as well as the distribution. Therefore, the outlook for both gold and oil were being reexamined Monday to reassess their potential and impact from the vaccine trials.

Goldman said in the short-term, the oil market faced spreading lockdowns with demand declining in Europe and the range of infections likely asymmetric to the upside through the winter. It added:

“We expect this winter wave to generate a 3 million barrels per day hit to global oil demand, only partially offset by heating, emerging markets and restocking demand, although this demand hit has so far been masked by strong Asian crude buying and restocking.”

“We expect these muddied short-term fundamental signals and the opposite pulls of lockdowns vs. vaccines to keep oil prices volatile in coming weeks. These cross-currents will further complicate OPEC+’ decision this week to delay or implement its scheduled 1.9 mb/d January production increase.”

A lack of extension representing $5/bbl downside from current spot levels on our modeling further contributed to short-term price gyrations, it said.

“Ultimately, these winter headwinds are just speed bumps on the path to a tightening oil market, with the winter COVID wave delaying but not derailing the oil market rebalancing, with normalized OECD stocks, OPEC+ spare capacity returning to 1Q20 levels and finally needed shale production growth all occurring by 4Q21."

“This leads us to reiterate our recommendations to be long Dec. 21 Brent forwards, our preferred expression of oil’s 2021 rally, as well as for producers to wait to hedge.”

Commodities Week Ahead: Gold Battles Free Fall; Oil Aims For $50
 

Related Articles

Phil Flynn
Energy Report: Dangerous Gains By Phil Flynn - Apr 09, 2021 4

While the world becomes more dangerous, the oil market gets quiet. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine as well as the Israeli-Iranian shadow war, is creating a situation where...

Yuri Papshev
Brent Oil Trading Recommendations By Yuri Papshev - Apr 09, 2021 1

Despite the decline, Brent Oil is traded in the bull market. The price found support at 62.70, while technical indicators OSMA and Stochastic turned up on the daily chart,...

Commodities Week Ahead: Gold Battles Free Fall; Oil Aims For $50

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (2)
Yousef Aldwairi
Yousef Aldwairi Dec 01, 2020 11:35PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Any updates MR maraniIts look like gold moving higher and fundamental shows its not going back 1775
Jan Skilbrei
Jan Skilbrei Nov 30, 2020 7:15AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
thanks a lot, tusen takk, someone looking at possible Iran oil heading back, as Biden wants diplomatic solution?
Christopher Jenkins
Christopher Jenkins Nov 30, 2020 7:15AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
The notorious OIL bear is becoking an oil bull??!!
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email