Coffee, (KC), is at an important juncture after finding a bottom at the 1.50 level. The weekly chart below shows a move straight higher after that Tweezers bottom, and a substantially oversold RSI. With the RSI now flirting with the mid line and closing in on a turn to bullish and the MACD rising and supporting further price action to the upside, we find the price retesting a critical level. It is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the long move higher into early 2011. Between this level at 1.88 and the rising 200-week SMA at 1.74, was a critical area on the move lower as it consolidated there for 10 weeks.
Now back-testing it from below, presents a trade opportunity either to the downside on a failure or to the upside on a break higher. A Measured Move lower takes it well below a full retracement at 1.13. And a break higher sees 2.11 as the next target. Even if you do not trade Coffee this can be important. Starbucks, (SBUX) reports Thursday night. A prolonged rise in Coffee prices will impact their earnigns and other Coffee companies like Caribou, (CBOU), Coffee Holdings, (JVA) and maybe Green Mountain, (GMCR). Think you do not need to care about Coffee prices, think again.
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