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Can Bonds Deliver as Retail Stocks Cave and Utilities Rebel?

Published 01/03/2024, 02:21 AM

We begin with DBC, which is doing a yeoman’s job of sinking. It is approaching the lower half of its long-time descending channel, and I think energy is speaking truthfully to us about what’s ahead for the economy.

The IEFA, global equities, is sinking away from its long-term broken uptrend.

EFA Chart

Gold miners still have an absolutely solid chance of rallying, provided prices don’t’ sink back again into that green-tinted zone.GDXJ Chart

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:FXI) continues to weaken beneath its right triangle.

FXI Chart

One of my three sine-wave trades, the small caps iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), had a nice down day today and is behaving itself perfectly properly.IWM Chart

Tech stocks got kicked in the balls, thanks to both severe AAPL weakness (investment bank downgrade) as well as profit-taking on tech in general.QQQ Chart

The same holds true for semiconductor, which is of course very dependent on a single stock, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).SMH Chart

Bonds, precisely as I hoped and predicted, as sinking away from that broken red uptrend.

TLT Chart

My second “sine wave trade”, utilities, was annoyingly strong today, perhaps as a defensive play. I actually bought a few more puts as it strengthened, but it sure as hell better start to weaken again soon.XLU Chart

My third and final sine wave trade, retail, went down today, which is a good thing. I’ve got March puts on all of these (IWM, XRT, XLU) and am really needing these to work out before I get aggressive with my trading again.XRT Chart

It was an exceptionally long day (trip to the airport, miserable red-eye light, lots of driving, lots of packing, all the while trying to do my job more-or-less) so I’m going to turn in. 

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