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Bitcoin: Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later

Published 07/17/2023, 03:31 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

At the end of June, we found using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) that Bitcoin (BTC) had made an almost picture-perfect Fibonacci-based impulse pattern, and we were looking for a correction to:

“… be underway, targeting ideally $27750-29000. But corrections can also move more through time than price, and we may see the blue Support Zone ($29K+/-500) hold.”

The cryptocurrency has traded over the past eighteen days, and since mid-June, between $29.5 and $31.5K. See Figure 1 below. Thus, indeed as stated, “correction can also move more through time than price.” Since corrections are either a zigzag, a triangle, or a flat, the question is “What’s next?”

Figure 1

Daily Candlestick Chart of BTC

BTC rallied strongly last Thursday, only to erase all of those gains a day later. That smells, per the EWP-“olfactory test” like a B-wave, as shown in Figure 1 above. This means red W-ii is most likely becoming an irregular flat.

The alternative is shown in Figure 2 below, where the crypto is already in a (green) W-1, 2 setup. But for that pattern to hold, BTC cannot move below the (pink) “floor” level at $29613 and it will have to break above $31.5K more directly.

Figure 2

BTC Daily

Regardless, thanks to the EWP, we know that even if the irregular flat targets (slightly) lower prices first, it will be followed by another impulse higher targeting >$42K, with a first pitstop at ideally around $33.5K+/-500. Thus, for now we can let BTC decide how it wants to fill in the short term, while we keep an eye on higher prices over the longer term.

The cryptocurrency will have to drop below the June low, with a first warning for the bulls below the lower end of support ($28.5K) to nullify our overall bullish thesis.

Latest comments

Great analysis!
Thank you!
Great TA doc. +1 vote for regularly covering Bitcoin price action.
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