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Bitcoin price has recently pulled back to trade at a new 16-month low of about $71,222, as the bear market stretches to four months.
Since Bitcoin hit its current all-time high of about $126,210 on October 6, 2025, the price of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has dropped 43.56%, making it one of its biggest crashes over four months.
Although Bitcoin experienced a series of pullbacks during its two-year rally from October 2023 to October 2025, it never broke the series of higher highs and higher lows. The recent pullback is the first one to break that trajectory.
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
Technically, Bitcoin trades under intense selling pressure, with the 100-day moving average now a key resistance. The latest pullback also pushed the BTC/USD below the 0.50 Fibonacci Retracement level, and into the oversold levels of the 14-day smoothed moving average illustrated using the Relative Strength Index indicator.
Bitcoin now looks poised to drop into a region of consolidation between $55,000 and $70,000, experienced between March and November 2024. This will be key in determining its next move, subject to underlying macro catalysts.
In 2024, Trump’s pro-crypto election campaign, followed by his subsequent win, triggered a bull run that stretched well into 2025. The case for another rebound is also on the cards now, at least technically, supported by the 0.618 Fib level, just over $63,000.
Key Drivers of Recent BTC Price Action
The Bitcoin price has largely been affected by macro factors since Trump took office in 2025. His pro-crypto agenda helped drive most of BTC’s recent rallies, but ultimately, it has now fallen back to its pre-Trump levels.
Some of the factors that could be contributing to Bitcoin’s latest crash include uncertainties about the Federal Reserve’s newly appointed chair, Kevin Warsh, to succeed Jerome Powell.
Federal Reserve Uncertainty:
Last week, President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, to succeed Jerome Powell as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh is generally viewed as a pro-crypto nomination.
However, the actual market reaction has been a complex mix of "sell the news" volatility and shifting macroeconomic expectations.
However, unlike his potential predecessor, the market sees Warsh as being a little too hawkish compared to Powell, who has been cautious from a macroeconomic perspective. There are general market fears that US interest rate cuts will likely be limited, with potential hikes also possible. This has caused market uncertainty, affecting investments in risk assets like Bitcoin.
Institutional Outflows:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock’s IBIT, are backed by physical Bitcoin. This means when investors sell their Spot Bitcoin ETFs, issuers like BlackRock are required to sell an equivalent amount of Bitcoin.
Recently, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded massive outflows of over $1.3 billion in a single week, signaling a de-risking phase among institutional investors. An equivalent sale placement of physical Bitcoin adds pressure to the price of BTC.
Correlation with Tech Stocks and Global Tech Sell-off:
Bitcoin has demonstrated over the past few quarters that it has a strong correlation with risk assets, as it plunged alongside global technology stocks.
Rotation to Gold:
What Now for Bitcoin?
In summary, while Bitcoin continues to experience short-term selling pressure amid several contributing factors, the pioneer cryptocurrency has demonstrated over the years its ability to bounce back.
Its late 2017 rally to the then all-time highs of about $18,000 was followed by an extended bearish run that saw it fall back below $3,000 in 2019. Two years later, Bitcoin rallied to $60,000 before pulling back to trade below $30,000 a few months later, only to recover and set a new high above $65,000. It then fell below $20,000 again in 2022, before embarking on a rally that culminated with its current all-time high of $126,210.
Therefore, while Bitcoin’s current crash looks sharp and scary, its recoveries have previously proven to be as immaculate, if not better.