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Bad News For The Economy Is Good News For Gold

Published 09/06/2022, 03:11 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

A bad run for gold and silver markets this summer is dimming hopes for the metals to be able to finish out the year with some good gains.

Major economic indicators have also been trending down this summer. Last week brought some disappointing jobs data.

However, bad news for the economy may ultimately be good for precious metals prices. That’s because the Federal Reserve hopes to see more economic pain before reversing course on rate hikes.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell said he welcomes a “softening” in the labor market. In other words, he wants more Americans out of work and in financial straits to ease inflation pressures.

Politicians in Washington, D.C., who continue to fuel the raging inflation fires by ramping up debt-financed spending programs won’t be dissuaded by rate hikes.

But central bankers figure they can drain liquidity from the real economy by making it more difficult for businesses to borrow and hire new employees.

Fed Searching for Excuses to Halt Rate Hikes, Resume Easing

Powell must have been happy to read last week’s jobs report. It showed the official unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in August (from 3.5% the prior month).

While still low historically, the unemployment rate, as calculated by the Labor Department, fails to account for millions of people who are currently out of work.

For example, it excludes “discouraged” workers who have been out of a job for too long (such as those who left the labor force in 2020 when the pandemic hit). It also fails to include part-time and gig economy workers seeking but cannot find full-time employment.

An Alternate Unemployment rate calculated by John Williams of ShadowStats shows that 24.6% of Americans were jobless in August.

Job seekers will likely face more challenging times, especially if the developing recession (not yet acknowledged by government statisticians) worsens.

The latest jobs data has investors now anticipating the Fed will scale back its rate-hiking plans at its next policy meeting later this month.

The worse things get for the economy, the more Jerome Powell and the company will pivot toward a looser monetary policy.

Silver Nears Extreme Undervaluation vs. Gold

A more dovish Fed will likely coincide with a peak in U.S. dollar strength on foreign exchange markets and a rally in contra-dollar assets such as precious metals. Smart money is positioning for a turnaround in gold and silver markets.

According to SentimenTrader,

“The smart money is buying silver. For only the 3rd time in history, commercial hedgers hold a net long position in silver futures. The other two preceded 20% rallies.”

On the flip side, sentiment among speculators and the public in general toward gold and silver is in the dumps. This is a good sign for contrarian bargain hunters. Big rallies typically begin when sentiment is bleakest.

Precious metals bull markets also often kick off when the gold:silver ratio is extremely high. Last week, the ratio reached the top of a 20-year range that was only exceeded during the 2020 pandemic panic.

Silver’s charts may look bad at the moment, but the opportunity for buyers to obtain the “poor man’s gold” at an extreme discount is too good to ignore.

Money Metals Exchange

Latest comments

Stefan so far I think you the only financial journalist who understands how these financial markets work
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