AUD/NZD Continues To Trend Lower; AUD/USD Remains Under Pressure

EUR/USD

The euro posted marginally lower low at the beginning of the week, pointing towards initial 1.28 support and short-term targets at 1.2786, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2042/1.3992 and 1.2754/44 higher base. Fresh extension lower signal that the third wave off 1.3699 lower top of 01 July, is not completed yet and could travel towards 1.2675, its 200% expansion. Further downside is favored for now with the notion being supported by weekly bearish engulfing pattern. However, overextended daily studies require caution, as indicators are starting to reverse, with confirmation of corrective action seen on a break above last Thu/Fri lower platform at 1.2928, near 61.8% of 1.2978/1.2824 descend. Extension higher to open 1.30 breakpoint zone, for more significant upside action, expected on a break.

Res: 1.2883; 1.2900; 1.2928; 1.2980
Sup: 1.2824; 1.2800; 1.2786; 1.2754




EUR/JPY

The pair shows overall bullish picture, as fresh extension higher cracked 141 barrier. The second weekly positive close supports the notion for further recovery towards the next layers of resistances at 142.46 and 143.78, in the near-term. On the other side, corrective pullback off fresh high at 141.20, weakened near-term structure and sees risk of further easing, as Friday’s trade closed in red. Also, pullback cracked 200SMA at 139.80, which so far holds, with sustained break lower to signal extended correction towards 139.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 135.80/141.20 ascend and previous high of 15 Sep. Supports at 139 zone should ideally hold, as 4-hour studies remain positive and look for resumption of strong uptrend from 135.80 low. Otherwise, extension below 139 and 138.50 higher base, is expected to sideline bulls.

Res: 140.10; 140.32; 140.62; 141.00
Sup: 139.66; 139.14; 139.00; 138.50




GBPUSD

Last Friday’s strong pullback from fresh recovery high at 1.6522, retraced 50% of entire 1.6050/1.6522 rally and over 61.8% of 1.6159/1.6500 upleg, on a dip to 1.6284. Temporary support was found here, as reversal was so far contained above bull-trendline drawn off 1.6050 low, which keeps 4-hour structure in bullish mode so far, with regain of levels above 1.64 barrier, required to re-focus 1.6522 and open key barriers above 1.66. On the other side, weakened hourly structure, along with last Friday’s close in red, see risk of further downside, which requires break below trendline support at 1.6280 and extension below 1.6230, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6050/1.6522 upleg, to confirm negative scenario.

Res: 1.6375; 1.6400; 1.6431; 1.6468
Sup: 1.6284; 1.6231; 1.6200; 1.6159




USD/JPY

Overall bulls remain in play, as the pair broke above 109 and posted fresh high at 109.42. Positive daily and weekly close is supportive for eventual push towards psychological 110 barrier and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak, short-term targets. Corrective dips are so far contained at 108.65, just above last Friday’s low at 108.57 and 108.42, Fibonacci 38.2% of 106.98/109.42, where consolidative action should ideally find footstep. Otherwise, easing below 108 handle, is expected to signal stronger correction and delay immediate bulls.

Res: 109.17; 109.42; 110.00; 110.66
Sup: 108.60; 108.42; 108.00; 107.80




AUD/USD

The pair remains under pressure and attempts at 0.89 support, signaling an end of consolidative 0.8925/0.8995 phase. Near-term technicals maintain negative tone, with the notion of further extension of the downleg from 0.9110 lower top, being supported by last Friday’s Outside Day candle. Break below 0.89 handle, opens 0.8857, Fibonacci 76.4% of 0.8658/0.9503 ascend and 0.8846, 05 Aug 2013 low, the last obstacles en-route towards 0.8658, 24 Jan 2014 low. Corrective actions should ideally stay capped by 0.90 barrier, while only break here would signal extended corrective action and delay immediate bears.

Res: 0.8948; 0.9000; 0.9040; 0.9079
Sup: 0.8900; 0.8846; 0.8819; 0.8800



AUD/NZD

The pair continues to trend lower, after losing psychological 1.10 support and daily 55SMA at 1.0980. Weekly gap-lower opening confirms bears fully in play for test of initial target at 1.0920 higher base, also near daily 100SMA and weekly cloud top, with completion of 1.0920/1.1293 upleg, expected to open way for further retracement of larger 1.0619/1.1293, 10 July / 05 Sep ascend. The notion is supported by the second weekly close in red and daily indicators establishing below the midlines, session high at 1.0977, offers initial resistance, ahead of 1.10, psychological / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1098/1.0939 barrier, reinforced by hourly 55SMA.

Res: 1.0977; 1.1000; 1.1022; 1.1038
Sup: 1.0939; 1.0920; 1.0900; 1.0876




XAU/USD

Spot Gold cracked 1209 support, Fibonacci 176.4% expansion of the third wave off 1322 lower top, which is now looking for test of psychological 1200 support and could extend to 1194, its 200% expansion, ahead of key med-term supports at 1182/80. Bears remain unobstructed for now and show no signals of stronger reversal so far. Near-term action off fresh low at 1208, faces initial barrier at 1217, Friday/today lower platform and 1220, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1239/1208 ascend. Only break above 1228 lower top and last Friday’s high, would delay immediate bears.

Res: 1217; 1220; 1228; 1231
Sup: 1208; 1200; 1194; 1182