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On Monday, Dec. 15, AST SpaceMobile is scheduled to launch its next-generation satellite, BlueBird 6, which is expected to bolster the company’s space-based cellular broadband network while also serving as a litmus test for the Midland, Texas-based firm’s ability to ramp up its operations.
The milestone will mark an essential step toward achieving the communication services sector newcomer’s ambitions to provide direct-to-smartphone, 24/7, high-speed cellular services. So it’s little surprise that the launch is something investors and critics alike are monitoring closely to glean clues about ASTSpaceMobile’s tech evolution and what the trajectory of the stock could look like heading into 2026.
BlueBird 6’s Launch Serves as a Credibility Test for AST SpaceMobile
Bluebird 6 will feature the largest commercial phased-array antenna of any satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) at 2,400 square feet. For context, AST SpaceMobile’s BlueWalker 3 (the company’s prototype test satellite launched on Sept. 10, 2022) and BlueBirds 1 through 5 (launched on Sept. 12, 2024) were equipped with arrays measuring 693 square feet.
BlueBird 6 is 3.5 times the size of its predecessors and will support 10 times their data capacity after it launches from India’s Satish Dhawan Space Center next week. And while Monday’s launch may just seem like a procedural operation to the undiscerning observer, it’s an enormous step for the company.
AST SpaceMobile is accelerating its production and operations, and by the end of 2026, the space telecommunications firm plans on having between 45 and 60 BlueBird satellites in LEO servicing the United States, Europe, and Japan.
Of those satellites, 40 are expected online in early 2026, highlighting the how rapidly the company is scaling. Looking further out, AST SpaceMobile intends to develop a larger fleet using as many as 90 satellites that will be fewer but larger than those deployed by competitors like Starlink.
That makes Monday’s tentative launch even more important if AST SpaceMobile wants to accelerate its deployment schedule.
To meet those lofty targets, the company is currently relying on a workforce of more than 1,800 personnel, 1,800 patents or patent-pending claims, and approximately half a million square feet of manufacturing and operations facilities around the globe. According to a recent press release, the company is “95% vertically integrated, with all major manufacturing processes kept under U.S. control.”
By the end of 2025, the company claims it will have the capacity to manufacture six launch-ready BlueBirds per month.
ASTS’s $1 Billion Revenue Pipeline in Waiting
Perhaps more impressive than its galactic aspirations is the revenue pipeline that AST SpaceMobile will have once its services go live. And while the company has disclosed that it will only be able to provide intermittent nationwide coverage in early 2026, plans are in place for continuous service later in the year as the company continues launching its next-gen BlueBird satellites, thereby expanding its service offerings.
That has led to AST SpaceMobile securing over $1 billion in aggregate contracted revenue from commercial partners as well as the U.S. federal government, according to the company’s Q3 business update.
Those government agreements entail a $43 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency for network services. Additionally, the company has entered into agreements with the National Science Foundation as well as the Department of Defense (DoD) for national security space demonstration projects through the DoD’s Hypersonic and Advanced Space-based Testbed (HALO) program.
To date, the company has commercial agreements in place with Verizon Communications, AT&T, and Vodafone Group. That’s in addition to commercial pacts with Japanese tech conglomerate Rakuten, real estate investment trust American Tower, and BCE, formerly Bell Canada Enterprises and one of Canada’s largest telecommunications and media companies.
Where Wall Street Stands on ASTS
Despite gaining more than 265% this year, AST SpaceMobile remains a fan favorite among Wall Street’s institutional investors. Much of that has to do with the company’s strategic partnerships, which in turn have heightened expectations among analysts and pundits alike.
In short, that looming $1 billion influx of revenue has Wall Street bullish on ASTS. While the current short interest of 14.44% may concern investors, that figure is down 5.20% from the last reporting period.
Additionally, that total is considerably lower than the $3.55 billion worth of shares that were short on Oct. 15, which marked a record since AST SpaceMobile went public.
Meanwhile, institutional ownership remains robust at nearly 61%. But more importantly, over the past 12 months, institutional buyers (296) have outnumbered sellers (105) with inflows of $1.9 billion easily surpassing outflows of just over $312 million.
Vanguard is particularly bullish on ASTS. As the largest institutional holder, the firm owns more than 19.9 million shares, valued at nearly $977.7 million.
The asset management company increased its position 13.4% last quarter, reflecting a trend among AST SpaceMobile’s other top-five institutional holders. During the same quarter, Northern Trust, Gotham Asset Management, and VackEck Associated increased their positions by 18.1%, 37.8%, and 125.1%, respectively.