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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) will release its fourth-quarter results Thursday, concluding a tech earnings season focused on whether the sector’s heavy AI spending will pay off.
The company plans roughly $125 billion in capital expenditures for 2025 for AI and data-center expansion and has eliminated about 30,000 corporate positions since October, a move CEO Andy Jassy called part of an effort to reduce bureaucracy.
Key Highlights
What to Watch in Amazon’s Q4 Earnings
- Apart from headline numbers and Q1 guidance, watch for:
- AI capex: Markets penalize rising AI capex without matching earnings growth. The 2026 capex projection will be important. A larger-than-expected increase could weigh on sentiment.
- AWS growth: AWS drives most of Amazon’s profitability and moves the stock. Look for details on Q1 guidance and any disclosure of backlog or signs of market-share shifts versus.
- Last quarter AWS recorded a 34.6% margin and revenue of $33B, up 20% year-over-year. Bloomberg’s consensus projects Q4 AWS revenue at $34.8B with margins near 34.43%.
- Amazon has stayed in the AI spotlight ahead of its earnings. In November, OpenAI struck a $38B deal with AWS to provide “hundreds of thousands” of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPUs. More recently, reports indicate Amazon may negotiate up to a $50B investment in OpenAI, which could make it the largest backer in the current fundraising round.
- Amazon recently said it will cut about 16,000 corporate roles, on top of roughly 14,000 job reductions earlier this year, as it streamlines operations — yet despite long-term growth drivers, its shares are down about 2.8% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500.
- Analysts will watch for updates on how Amazon is handling persistent tariffs; Jassy recently warned they are beginning to "creep into" prices, after previously saying Amazon had not seen major changes in prices or consumer demand.
Analysts Expectation
- UBS raised its price target on Amazon (AMZN) to $311 from $310 and kept a Buy rating ahead of the company’s Q4 earnings.
- BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating on Amazon (AMZN) and kept its $304 price target.
- Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating on Amazon.com (AMZN) and maintained a $335 price target.
AMZN Q4 2025 earnings after-market (4:01 pm ET) Thursday February 05, 2026
|
Analyst Ratings |
|||
|
SOURCE |
BUY |
HOLD |
SELL |
|
Refinitiv |
67 |
4 |
0 |
|
TipRanks |
36 |
1 |
0 |
|
Earnings Expectation |
|
|
EPS |
1.97 USD |
|
Revenue |
211.44 B USD |
Expected Move by Option Expiration
Options flow shows a large net positive gamma at the 250 strike (+$162,048.939) and a net negative gamma at the 225 strike (-$45,103.246) across expiries from Feb 2026 to Dec 2028. The put/call ratio indicates mostly bullish bias in all February contract expiration.
Technical Analysis Perspective
- Amazon is trading within a symmetrical triangle formation.
- The descending trendline intersects the price between $244–$248 this week.
- The ascending trendline is approaching the $224–$228 area.
- Expect the stock to trade between these levels in pre and post-earnings.
- Price is currently working through the earnings gap from $228.44 to $250.10.
- Ideally, the stock will stay in the $224–$248 band after earnings.
- A symmetrical triangle can signal either continuation of the prior trend or a reversal.
- Wait for a decisive breakout to confirm the next clear directional move.
Daily Candlestick Chart
AMZN Seasonality Chart:
Since 2007, AMZN has seen February close with 1.3% drop in 45% of years and March with a 4.0% gain in 79% of years.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.
Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belong to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.