Adobe Earnings Preview: Is AI Rewriting the Playbook?

Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) will report quarterly earnings on March 12 after the market close, with EPS expected at $5.86 on $6.27 billion in revenue. Investors will be focused on updates and forecasts for its AI-driven tools as the stock is down 22% in 2026, following last quarter’s announcement of a 7.2 million share buyback and record operating cash flow exceeding $10 billion.

Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged, indicating that covering analysts collectively stuck with their initial forecasts throughout that period.

Key highlights:

• ADBE peaked at $638.25 two years ago, but the rapid adoption of AI has since reshaped the tech landscape, the stock now trades around $270 per share, down 22% in 2026 so far.
• At the start of 2026, fears that AI would replace software business models sent names like Adobe and Microsoft plunging amid “SaaSpocalypse” talk. Weeks later they rebounded as the story shifted from replacement to integration—prompting steep price discounts for many tech stocks, Adobe included.
• Despite sector fears, Adobe posted record FY2025 operating cash flow above $10 billion ($31 per U.S. person) and repurchased 7.2 million shares. Buybacks can signal either management confidence or a shortage of better investment opportunities.
• Analysts and investors are closely watching how rapid advances in large language models are reshaping competition and creating uncertainty across the software industry.
• Demand for Photoshop, Illustrator and other core creative tools remains strong, but attention has shifted to Adobe’s AI efforts — the company says AI-influenced annual recurring revenue now exceeds one-third of total revenue.
• Implied volatility, derived from options prices, suggests Adobe (around $270) is expected to move about ±$20.96 this week, roughly 7.7% of the stock.

Analysts Expectation:

• TD Cowen cut Adobe’s price target to $325 from $400 while keeping a Hold rating.
• RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating on Adobe with a $430 price target.

Wells Fargo kept Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) at Overweight and trimmed the price target to $405 from $420.

ADBE Q1 2026 earnings after market (4:05 pm et) Thursday March 12, 2026

Expected Move By Option Expiration:

Options flow shows a large net positive open interest at 400 strike (14,442 contracts) and a net negative open interest at 220 strike (-12,081 contracts) across expiries from March 2026 to January 2028.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

• ADBE is trading inside a long-term congestion range between 275–257, with additional support around 235.
• The stock bounced off the lower slope of a downtrend (April 2025 lows near 332).
• Prices again found support at that trendline in late February currently at 235 area.
• Best case: holding a 260–255 base after earnings would set up a rally toward 295, with upside extending to 315.
• Bear case: a break below 260–255 would likely see a drop to 235.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

ADBE Seasonality Chart:

Since 2007, ADBE has seen March close with 3.1% rise in 65% of years and April with a 1.8% rise in 58% of years.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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