After hiking rates by 5.25% since March 2022, the Fed is in a wait-and-see period, commonly deemed a pause. Since the Fed started hiking rates, inflation has declined meaningfully...
The expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in November. Today’s revised, long-run forecast for the benchmark — a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds...
I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft...
“For me, context is the key – from that comes the understanding of everything.” - Abstract Artist Kenneth Noland. That holds true for us as well! Proper context...
In what we thought was going to be a quiet week for FX, the dollar has extended its recent losses. Driving those losses have been Fed speeches welcoming signs of slowing economic...
It was another pretty slow day on Tuesday, with most of the action in the bond market, with the 2-year falling by 15 bps, resulting in the yield curve steepening with the 10-2 Year...
After reaching overbought levels and pulling back from August through October (declining orange channel in the chart below), the market has decisively broken out to the upside....
Last week ended on a positive note where the US equities advanced to fresh highs since summer on a holiday-shortened trading week. The S&P 500 gained for the 4th consecutive week...
Here's a quick update for this holiday-shortened week! From my perspective, two things mattered this week: The release of the FOMC meeting minutes The latest consumer sentiment...
Bank of America's Savita Subramanian projected the S&P 500 to peak at 5,000 in 2024, marking one of the most upbeat forecasts. Bank of America (BofA) strategist Savita...
-29.08 +1.53% @ Friday's Close 2023. Good spot to lock in some gains on long 2's, short 10's and 30's.
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Recession always happens when we have an inverted yield curve.When is most likely after that yield curve goes positive.
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100% correct and when it turns up the market crashes down
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As is now happening
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Number of months between yield curve inversion and start of recession 1978-2022: Aug 1978 / 17M, Sep 1980 / 10M, Jun 1989 / 18M, Feb 2000 / 13M, Jan 2006 / 22M, Aug 2019 / 6M
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This yield gap, omg
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Getting lower and lower. If history repeats itself, there's a recession coming
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sell
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Not sure if a pause will un-invert this thing but its a step in the right track.. we must see it happen to get us a good ol fashioned sell off.
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Sexy bond spread, recession soon
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They removed the shaded part that was negative YC previously. Maybe it's easier to pretend we're not heading towards a major recession.
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I thought you are the one always saying the Market never goes down?