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Without a cash infusion Carvana's 'equity value goes to zero' - BofA

Stock Markets Nov 30, 2022 10:20AM ET
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© Reuters. Without a cash infusion Carvana's (CVNA) 'equity value goes to zero' - BofA
 
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By Sam Boughedda

Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) shares were downgraded to Neutral from Buy with its price target cut to $10 per share from $43 by BofA on Wednesday, representing its fifth downgrade in two weeks based on the company's cash crunch.

BofA analysts said Carvana's "cash tank is running low," and without an infusion, the firm believes Carvana is "likely to run out of cash by the end of 2023."

"Carvana has been struggling to turn profitable, and with ~$600mn in annual interest expense is burning through cash quickly. The company now has $477mn in cash (including restricted), and inventory of $2.6bn, which is far outweighed by its LT notes payable at $6.6bn. On November 21st, Moody's downgraded the company's outlook to negative, from stable, and affirmed a Caa1 rating," the analysts wrote.

The analysts added there is "no indication yet of a potential cash infusion, for example from the Garcia family (the CEO and his father the chairman), and it is impossible to predict if and when that would occur."

In their assessment, this combined with the high short interest, creates a situation where this stock's performance looks binary: "either it goes to zero or it is worth many times its current price of $7.34, and assigning probabilities for the catalysts that would determine these outcomes (such as a cash infusion) is impossible."

"Current valuations imply a significant likelihood that the equity value falls to zero, but a turnaround could be aggressive should outside financing become available. Our bull case assumes that the company is able to raise capital, keeping it liquid long enough to cut expenses and reach profitability. Applying reasonable long term EBITDA margins of 13.5% to 2022 revenue numbers, the company is trading at only 4x 2022 EV/EBITDA. A low multiple relative to its historic triple-digit top-line growth. Our bear case is quite simple: without a cash infusion, liquidity will dry up and the equity value goes to zero," the analysts declared.

Carvana shares are down a further 5% on Wednesday.

Without a cash infusion Carvana's 'equity value goes to zero' - BofA
 

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