- With the 10-year Treasury yield down a full 11 basis points to roughly its weakest level since shortly after the November election, and financial stocks plunging, it's worth a check of short-term rate futures to see if a June rate hike (as more or less promised by the Fed) continues to be priced in.
- Turns out Fed Fund futures are sharply higher today (i.e. pricing in less of a chance for hikes), with the July contract up 3.5 basis points to price in a 60% chance of a move in June.
- Slowing inflation could give the FOMC the excuse it needs to take a pause, but the jobs market continues to rip and unemployment to fall. Among those whose hopes for continued higher rates (and eased regulations) are currently dashed: Morgan Stanley (MS -5.8%), Bank of America (BAC -5.6%), Schwab (SCHW -6.2%), MetLife (MET -3.6%), Regions Financial (RF -3.1%), KeyCorp (KEY -4.3%), PNC Financial (PNC -3.8%), Comerica (CMA -5.1%), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN -5.1%), State Street (STT -3.5%), Lincoln National (LNC -5%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, JHMF, FAZZ, FNCF
- Now read: Bank Of America: Major Positive Catalyst Looms
Original article