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Q2 Earnings Season Should Be a Negative Catalyst for Equities - Morgan Stanley

Stock Markets Jul 20, 2022 06:47AM ET
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© Reuters. Q2 Earnings Season Should Be a Negative Catalyst for Equities - Morgan Stanley
 
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By Senad Karaahmetovic

A Morgan Stanley strategist says the ongoing Q2 earnings season is likely a negative catalyst for equities in the coming weeks.

The strategist is “skeptical” that companies will be able to match consensus expectations of c5.5% earnings growth in Q2, led by strong top-line growth (10-11%).

“We're skeptical of this optimism amid continued broad cost pressures and decelerating top line, and think it's just a matter of time before 4Q22 and early 2023 margin estimates are revised lower,” the strategist told clients in a note.

Moreover, the strategist also sees a risk to earnings from the stronger U.S. dollar.

“The dollar's surge higher amid safe-haven demand and hawkish Fed policy presents a headwind for US earnings. US companies in aggregate generate ~30% of sales abroad. Our math suggests that every percentage point increase in the dollar on a Y/Y basis provides an approximately 0.5ppt hit to S&P 500 EPS growth. Thus, the 16% year-on-year increase we've seen in the DXY index would translate into an 8% headwind for S&P 500 EPS growth, all else equal,” the strategist added.

As a result, the strategist echoed a Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist - recent comments that earnings revisions will likely come down over the next few earnings seasons.

Finally, Morgan Stanley strategists listed 5 stocks that should respond positively to their respective earrings results.

These stocks are EastGroup (NYSE:EGP), Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), Gaming and Leisure Properties (NASDAQ:GLPI), Instructure Holdings (NYSE:INST), and Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC).

Q2 Earnings Season Should Be a Negative Catalyst for Equities - Morgan Stanley
 

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Joe Rizzuto
Joe Rizzuto Jul 20, 2022 8:33AM ET
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earnings estimates nearly always come down as we get closer to the reporting period. analysts nearly always start with very 'high-bar' projections and then lower then as reality sets in.
 
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