- Global oil demand will peak at around 2036, says oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie, an earlier date than many energy majors use in their scenario planning.
- Wood Mackenzie’s long-term energy outlook, which was given to clients in May but not yet reported, comes as some of the world’s oil majors have begun to prepare for a future when oil demand is no longer steadily rising while others have been more hesitant, chiefly Exxon Mobil (XOM -1%) and giant state-owned oil companies such as Saudi Aramco, which have resisted the notion that demand for their primary fossil fuel products could stop growing within 20 years.
- “Autonomous electric vehicles or robo-taxis will really change the face of transport in the coming decades,” says Ed Rawl, Wood Mackenzie’s head of crude oil research. “We presume they become commercial by 2030 and widely accepted by 2035... They will be on the road far more as they are autonomous, displacing a disproportionate amount of oil-based transport."
- But seeing peak oil demand on the distant horizon does not mean lower prices in the short term, Rawl says, as growing U.S. supply should turn the U.S. into by far the biggest oil producer by the middle of the next decade but output from other countries outside OPEC likely will slow by ~2023.
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