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Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Roche Holding AG to SFr 410 from SFr 295 and upgraded the Swiss drugmaker to "overweight" from "equal-weight."
The broker said its more bullish stance was driven by a bigger and faster-than-expected U.S. launch of breast cancer drug giredestrant, forecasting roughly CHF 660 million in first-year sales and 2027 core earnings per share of SFr 22.96, 5.2% above the post-Q1 2026 consensus of SFr 21.83.
Morgan Stanley also added Roche Holding AG as a Top Pick, replacing AstraZeneca, and set a US$63 price target on the Pink Sheets-listed ADR, up from US$46.
Roche shares closed at SFr 364.70 on Aug. 6, 2026, implying roughly 12% upside to the new target. The bank’s 2026 core EPS estimate of SFr 20.73 stands 2.9% above the consensus of SFr 20.14, while its 2028 and 2029 estimates run 3.6% and 4.5% ahead of the Street, respectively.
Analysts said they expect two U.S. approval decisions for giredestrant in late 2026, lidERA in adjuvant ER+/HER2-negative breast cancer with a PDUFA date of Nov. 30, and evERA in post-CDK4/6 metastatic breast cancer on Dec. 18, and forecast first-year sales of approximately CHF 660 million, or $800 million, with upside to $1-1.2 billion depending on conversion of CDK4/6-intolerant patients.
Peak adjuvant sales alone are estimated at roughly CHF 7 billion, with total giredestrant peak sales across the broader programme seen reaching CHF 9 billion, or $11 billion, ahead of the Street consensus of approximately CHF 6.6 billion.
The bank’s 2026 group sales estimate of CHF 62.669 billion is 0.5% above consensus of CHF 62.374 billion, while its 2027 group sales estimate of CHF 65.233 billion is broadly in line with the consensus of CHF 65.205 billion.
Beyond giredestrant, the analysts flagged pipeline catalysts from 2027 onward, including Phase 3 data for ulcerative colitis drug afimkibart, which Roche guides to more than CHF 3 billion peak sales; SKYGLO data for Columvi in first-line blood cancer, representing a roughly CHF 1.6 billion unadjusted opportunity; and early Alzheimer’s data for trontinemab, which Kapila and Boutherin said could represent more than $5 billion in peak sales.
On valuation, the bank said Roche trades at approximately 15.5 times its 2027 estimated P/E, a roughly 15% premium to European large-cap pharma peers, which it called justified by improving earnings visibility and a lower-risk growth profile relative to AstraZeneca and Novartis.
The bull case stands at SFr 460, predicated on successful 2027-28 pipeline execution; the bear case sits at SFr 300, reflecting slower giredestrant uptake and pipeline setbacks.
