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Investing.com -- Berenberg cut Anglo American Plc to "hold" from "buy" rating, citing the risk of a market disappointment with the diversified miner’s first-half results and a wait for its merger with Teck Resources to close.
The broker kept its price target unchanged at 4,200 pence per share, with the stock trading at 1.84 times net asset value and 9.8 times forecast 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, Berenberg said.
"In the short term, we are below H1 consensus estimates and see scope for a slight market disappointment with its H1 results, with a number of the non-core assets underperforming," analysts said. "We move to Hold for now, and take profits."
Anglo American is due to report second-quarter production on July 23, followed by first-half results on July 30.
The broker forecasts group revenue of $9.8 billion for the first half, below a consensus estimate of $9.9 billion, and underlying EBITDA of $3.7 billion, compared with a consensus of $3.9 billion.
Berenberg forecasts adjusted continuing earnings per share of $0.63, against a consensus of $0.78, and a first-half dividend of $0.25 per share, versus a consensus of $0.31. Net debt is forecast at $9.3 billion at the end of the period.
Anglo American agreed a merger of equals with Teck Resources, expected to complete between September 2026 and March 2027, with Chinese antitrust approval the final regulatory hurdle. Berenberg said it does not expect that approval to pose a problem.
The broker had previously rated the stock "sell" on concerns that simplifying the business would be difficult, before raising it as the Teck merger progressed.
For 2026, Berenberg forecasts Anglo American sales of $20.38 billion, up 0.1% from its prior estimate, EBITDA of $8.09 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.60, up 0.5%. For 2027, the broker forecasts sales of $33.83 billion, up 1.6%, and EBITDA of $14.90 billion.
Anglo American booked 2025 revenue of $18.55 billion and EBITDA of $6.20 billion, with a net loss per share of $1.13, according to Berenberg.
Once the Teck merger closes and asset disposals are completed, Berenberg expects copper to account for about 74% of group EBITDA in 2027, with iron ore contributing about 15% and zinc about 8%.
