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Forex - Weekly Outlook: November 6 - 10

Published 11/05/2017, 05:44 AM
Updated 11/05/2017, 05:44 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar reverses losses after weak October jobs report

Investing.com - The dollar reversed losses on Friday after the release of U.S. factory orders and service sector data that saw investors look past a weaker than expected jobs report for October.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.22% at 94.83 in late trade. The index had fallen as low as 94.11 earlier.

The dollar turned positive after U.S. factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to its highest level since 2005.

Another report showed that new orders for U.S.made goods rose for the second straight month in September and orders for core capital goods rose more than expected.

The dollar had earlier fallen to its lows of the day after the release of October U.S. nonfarm payrolls, which came in below expectations.

The U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said, falling short of forecasts for 315,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, its lowest level since December 2000.

Some investors believe the data was distorted by the effects of recent hurricanes in the U.S.

Investors were also focused on the proposed tax overhaul outlined by Republican lawmakers on Thursday.

Some traders believe tax reforms could bolster growth, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, known as the "Trumpflation" trade.

The euro was lower against the dollar in late trade, with EUR/USD down 0.45% to 1.1605.

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The dollar was flat against the yen, with USD/JPY at 114.07, erasing losses from earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, sterling nudged higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.13% to 1.3076, one day after posting the largest one-day decline since the June 2016 Brexit vote after the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade but said it sees only gradual rises ahead.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to monitor the progress of the U.S. tax reform bill in what will be relatively quiet week for economic data.

China is to release data on trade and inflation while monetary policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are also be on the agenda.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 6

New Zealand is to publish data on inflation expectations.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak.

Canada is to publish its Ivey PMI.

New York Fed President William Dudley is to speak.

Tuesday, November 7

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The UK is to publish industry data on house price inflation.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.

Later in the day, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to deliver remarks in Montreal.

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Wednesday, November 8

China is to release monthly trade data.

Canada is to report on building permits.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Thursday, November 9

China is to release inflation data.

Canada is to produce data on new house price inflation.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.

Friday, November 10

The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement.

The UK is to report on manufacturing output and the trade balance.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on consumer sentiment.

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