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Forex - Weekly outlook: June 25 - 29

Published 06/24/2012, 05:12 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week broadly higher against its major counterparts on Friday, after the Federal Reserve extended its current monetary easing program, but refrained from implementing more aggressive measures to bolster growth.

The greenback found support after the Fed announced that it is extending the current bond buying program, known as "Operation Twist", until the end of this year following its policy meeting on Wednesday and said it was ready to do even more to help support the fragile economic recovery.

The U.S. central bank also revised down its forecast for growth for 2012 and reiterated plans to keep short-term rates at record lows until at least late 2014.

The euro pushed higher against the greenback on Friday, after the European Central Bank relaxed rules on collateral for central-bank loans.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the leaders of France, Italy and Spain agreed to push for a EUR130 billion growth package for struggling euro zone economies at a European Union summit beginning next week.

The euro fell by the most against the greenback in five months on Thursday, after a string of weak global economic data saw investors seek out the safety of the greenback.

The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds settled at 6.38% by close of trade on Friday, after surging to a euro-era high of 7.28% on Monday. Spain was expected to make a formal a bailout request for its banks over the weekend after reports on Thursday indicated that Madrid would need EUR62 billion to secure its banking sector.

The greenback strengthened against the yen for a third consecutive day on Friday, amid mounting speculation over the possibility for further monetary easing by the Bank of Japan at its upcoming meeting in July after two new policymakers who are believed to favor easing were appointed to the bank’s board.

The pound ended the week lower against the greenback after Wednesday’s minutes of the Bank of England’s June meeting showed that four policymakers, including Governor Mervyn King, voted in favor of another round of quantitative easing this month, while five voted against.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the upcoming EU summit amid growing expectations for progress on greater fiscal integration and allowing the bloc's rescue funds to buy government debt.

Elsewhere, BoE policymakers are to testify on the U.K. economic outlook on Tuesday, while the U.S. is to release official data on inflation, manufacturing output and new home sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 25

The U.S. is to release official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, June 26

In the euro zone, market research group Gfk is to publish a report on German consumer climate, a key gauge of consumer spending.

In the U.K., senior BoE policymakers, including Governor Mervyn King, are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee. The U.K. is also to produce official data on public sector net borrowing.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing sector’s health. The country is also to produce a report on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, June 27

New Zealand is to release official data on trade balance, which is the difference in value between imported and exported goods.

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

The U.K. is to produce industry data on mortgage approvals, an important signal of housing market demand, followed by a report by the Confederation of British Industry on retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as industry data on pending home sales and a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, June 28

Japan is to produce government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Australia is to release industry data on new home sales, while the National Bank of New Zealand is to publish a report on business confidence, a leading gauge of economic health.

The U.K. is to produce industry data on house price inflation, followed by official data on the country’s current account and revised data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The BoE is also to publish a report on its credit conditions survey.

In the euro zone, EU leaders are scheduled to hold the first day of talks at an economic summit in Brussels. Meanwhile, Germany is to produce official data on unemployment change, an important signal of overall economic health.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to release government data on initial jobless claims, followed by revised data on first quarter economic growth.

Friday, June 29

New Zealand is to release official data on building consents, a leading gauge of future construction activity, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish a report on private sector credit.

Meanwhile, Japan is to produce official data on household spending and on consumer price inflation in the Tokyo area. The country is also to release preliminary data on industrial production, a key indicator of economic health.

In the U.K., BoE Governor Mervyn King is due to speak before the release of the central bank’s financial stability report. The U.K. is also to release a report on consumer confidence.

Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to release a report by the KOF Economic Research Agency on its economic barometer, which is a combined reading of 12 economic indicators.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while Germany is to release official data on retail sales. Italy’s Treasury is to hold a 10-year government bond auction. Meanwhile, EU leaders are to hold a second day of talks in Brussels.

Later in the day, Canada is to publish official data on GDP, as well as data on raw materials price inflation, a key indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation and personal spending, followed by a report on the purchasing managers’ index in Chicago and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.


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