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Forex - Weekly outlook: July 7 - 11

Published 07/06/2014, 05:34 AM
Dollar ends week broadly higher after strong U.S. jobs report for June

Investing.com - The dollar ended the week higher against a basket of major currencies on Friday, one day after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June revived speculation over when the Federal Reserve may start to raise interest rates.

The Labor Department reported that that U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for jobs growth of 212,000. The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.31 late Friday, recovering from the two-month lows of 79.84 reached earlier in the week.

USD/JPY settled at 102.05, off Thursday’s high of 102.25, but still 0.62% higher for the week. EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3594, down 0.35% for the week.

The euro came under pressure after the European Central Bank reiterated that it could use "unconventional measures" to combat persistently low levels of inflation in the euro area.

The ECB left all rates on hold on Thursday, in a widely anticipated decision, after cutting rates to record lows in June.

The single currency was also lower against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY down 0.24% to 138.74, off Thursday’s one-month highs of 139.26.

The pound stayed close to six-year highs against the dollar, with GBP/USD at 1.7159 late Friday, as expectations that the Bank of England will raise rates before the end of the year continued to underpin demand for sterling.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar pushed higher against the greenback on Friday after falling to its lowest level in more than two weeks on Thursday. AUD/USD was at 0.9364 late Friday, paring the week’s losses to 0.52%.

The Aussie fell sharply on Thursday after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the currency was overvalued and added that the central bank had “ammunition” to push interest rates even lower if necessary.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, with few other major U.S. economic reports on the calendar. Meanwhile, Australia and Canada are to publish their latest jobs reports and the Bank of England is to hold its monthly rate setting meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 7

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

Canada is to publish data on building starts and the Ivey PMI.

Tuesday, July 8

Both Australia and New Zealand are to publish private sector data on business confidence, while Japan is to release a report on the current account.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Switzerland is to produce reports on consumer price inflation and retail sales.

Elsewhere in Europe, the U.K. is to release data on manufacturing and industrial production.

Wednesday, July 9

Australia is to produce a report on consumer sentiment.

China is to release official data on consumer and producer price inflation.

Canada is to publish data on housing starts.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 10

New Zealand is to release private sector data on manufacturing activity.

Japan is to publish core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity.

Australia is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, and a private sector report on inflation expectations.

In the euro zone, France is to publish a report on industrial production, while the ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin.

The U.K. is to release data on the trade balance, while the Bank of England is also to announce its benchmark interest rate, following its monthly rate review.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 11

Australia is to publish data on home loans.

Canada is to round up the week with data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.

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