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Commodity currencies fall as OPEC+ output cuts fail to allay demand anxiety

Published 04/12/2020, 08:37 PM
Updated 04/12/2020, 11:35 PM
© Reuters. U.S. dollars and other world currencies lie in a charity receptacle at Pearson international airport in Toronto

By Stanley White

TOKYO (Reuters) - Commodity currencies slipped against their safe-haven rivals such as the dollar and yen on Monday as a record output cut agreed by OPEC and other oil producing nations failed to offset broader concerns about slumping global demand.

The greenback drifted higher against its Australian and New Zealand counterparts, widely seen as barometers for market risk, in a sign investors remain concerned about the consumption outlook for commodities.

Financial markets remain on edge over the spread of the novel coronavirus as severe restrictions on personal movement drag the global economy into a deep recession.

"The initial reaction suggests that the decline in oil demand is well ahead of the output cuts that were agreed," said Yukio Ishizuki, FX strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

"This is a negative for oil producers. This also encourages risk-off trading, which should support the yen."

The dollar rose 0.63% against the Norwegian crown

Against the Canadian dollar

Trading could be somewhat subdued as financial markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Britain are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.

Major oil producers agreed to the output cuts on Sunday to prop up oil markets as the pandemic severely curtailed global demand.

Oil prices had gone into freefall on worries about the virus and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which was seen straining the budgets of oil producers and hammering the U.S. shale industry.

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Currencies from Norway, Mexico, and Canada - all major oil producers - got a boost on Friday as the agreement to cut output began to take shape, but these gains disappeared on Monday as investors avoided risk assets.

While oil futures erased early losses to trade higher in Asia, trading in currency markets highlighted investor trepidation over the prevailing uncertainty in markets.

Other currency traders pointed to a decline in U.S. stock futures as a supportive factor for risk-off trades.

The cautious mood boosted the yen, which is often sought as a safe-haven during times of market and economic stress because of Japan's current account surplus.

The yen

In the onshore market, the yuan

China is expected to release export data for March on Tuesday, which will be closely watched for signs of the pandemic's damage on the global economy.

Against the safe-haven Swiss franc

The dollar traded at $1.0928 per euro (EUR=EBS), near its lowest level in more than a week.

Further declines in the dollar may be limited with speculative net short positions in the U.S. currency having risen to their highest since May 2018, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

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The Australian dollar

The pound

Sterling retained gains made after Prime Minister Boris Johnson left hospital for treatment of COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus.

Latest comments

As inventories receive more , production will be reduced even more. You reduce production another 10 mbd while china demand increases price will find support. The shorts are betting the US economy will not open up before June. We will see.
they had a hard time making this deal to cut 9.7 million. I doubt they will be able to simply cut another 10. I agree, China will start to use some of the glut. But they are an export economy with no one to export to at the moment. I'm not short, but I don't think stabalizing the price will be as quick and easy as you make it sound. Besides, demand was steadily decreasing before anyone ever heard of Coronavirus.
China oil demand will pick up soon.
They wont allow it to be doomed. Its just in a slump til demand increases
oil is doomed!I don't care what the opec countries do.. unless they literally shut off the taps..that oil price will be in the teens by late summer as glut builds to levels NEVER seen in the history of that market!common sense=supply and demand
It will resume soon. This is not after the universe reborned. The greatest power of humanbeing is to forget and move on.
life as you know it will never go back to normal. You can quote me on that.
epic time to buy oil, this will turn around and you will all say," ***remember my favorite oil stock at ****" NVA on tsx is an epic price at .70c, bought a boat load at .26c and sold some at 52c and 75c and just bought more, any good oil stock should be a good 10% of your portfolio now, think of it as liquid gold. oil is not going anywhere and will be 40$ plus a barrel eventually.
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