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Comic: Markets Freak Out As Big Fed Rate Cut Bets Fade

Published 07/09/2019, 07:13 AM
Updated 07/09/2019, 07:36 AM

By Jesse Cohen

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open on Tuesday as expectations waned for a hefty interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.

At around 7:30AM ET, the blue-chip Dow futures were down 90 points, or 0.3%, the S&P 500 futures slipped 9 points, or 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 30 points, or 0.4%.

Global stocks have been on the backfoot since late last week, when strong U.S. jobs data tempered expectations the Fed will deliver a large rate cut at its July 30-31 meeting.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 224,000 in June, the most in five months, data showed on Friday, beating economists' consensus estimate of 160,000.

The robust jobs data saw investors dial back bets of a 50 basis point rate cut later this month, with the market now seeing less than a 5% chance of such a move, down from roughly 30% before the data was released.

Markets are still pricing in a quarter-point cut with 100% certainty, though not all are as convinced.

Focus now turns to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who could provide further clues on the near-term outlook for monetary policy when he speaks at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston at 8:45AM ET Tuesday.

He is then due to appear in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday for his semi-annual testimony which will see the Fed chief speak in front of the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee.

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U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed for not lowering borrowing costs this year, saying last week: “If we had a Fed that would lower interest rates, we’d be like a rocket ship.”

For its part, the Fed has reiterated its independence, with Powell saying last month that the U.S. central bank is “insulated from short-term political pressures.”

To see more of Investing.com’s weekly comics, visit: http://www.investing.com/analysis/comics

-- Reuters contributed to this report

Latest comments

The great dissapointment for the market will precisely be a 0 rate cut in july, you can see that stupid euphoria all around. Thinking objectively, FED should pay attention to all incoming data, and not ignoring manufacturing and Jobs numbers, which say US is in great shape, in no need of a rate cut, even as Trump is bullying the FED.
I expect the rate cut to be 50bp catching experts off guard and finally over the 27,000 Dow threshold.
0 rate cut at this level of market
And KT thought he had power!
Fed will cut 25bp July. And another 25bp cut in September.. . Great job report is good. But it belongs to the trailing index.. When it comes to deciding Fed rates.. You need to see leading indicators.. . ISM/Markit PMI indexes are keep falling, Weak CPI, Manufacturing indexes by 5 regional Feds are falling sharply. If FED doesn't cut it in July. There will be no FOMC in August so it has to wait for another 2 months for the next FOMC.. . During the 2 months, if market crunchs, people in the market will blame FED, And Trump will blame and will seek for a way to sack Powell.  FED has no choice but to cut it 25bp in July. It's a checkmate.
0 cut
Anyone who thinks fed shluld cut is prob a millenial. Who only knows 2007-2019. Do some research into historical rates. And why do we have free money for a decade. We should b raising rates. See millenials dont know anything but feeding an addict more and more. Thats whats wrong with the market. Fed meant little to zero during normal years. Which is 1900-2007. Millenials. What a shame.
Agree. Generation selfi . If Powell cut now he will reduce his ability to intervene in case of any crisis.
Oh wow it's so terrible, great jobs report. Buffet laughs ready to buy on dips. We don't need a rate cut, we need a global trade deal.
The FED will cut rates, the current situation calls for it.
FED is not going to cut anything, it means they are gonna earn less money. Wait and see...and be out of the market.
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