Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

What Economists Are Saying Ahead of the March U.S. Jobs Report

Economic IndicatorsApr 05, 2019 02:50AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
© Bloomberg. Job seekers stand in a line for an interview at the San Francisco Career Fair & Job Fair in Burlingame, California, U.S., on Thursday, March 14, 2019. The Department of Labor is scheduled to release initial jobless claims figures on March 21.

(Bloomberg) -- Economists are looking for a stabilization in U.S. payrolls after getting whipsawed by hot-and-cold swings in the past two jobs reports and other recent indicators giving mixed signals on employment.

Nonfarm jobs increased by 177,000 in March, according to Bloomberg’s survey, a level that would be just under the three-month trend but down from last year’s 223,000 average. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 3.8 percent, near an almost half-century low, with annual wage gains remaining at a 3.4 percent pace, the strongest of the economic expansion.

Analysts will also be focused on the revision for February’s big payrolls slump to 20,000, the weakest reading in almost a year and a half, after January’s 311,000 gain, which was upwardly revised.

Estimates in Bloomberg’s survey for the March figure range from 110,000 to 277,000. Here’s what some economists expect, with projections listed from low to high:

ING Groep (AS:INGA)

  • 160,000 jobs, 3.8 percent unemployment, 3.5 percent annual wage growth
  • “February’s very soft jobs report contributed to markets pricing in Fed rate cuts later this year, but we expect a much better set of figures for March which should help ease market fears about a slowdown,” Chief International Economist James Knightley wrote in a note. February’s “astonishingly” low payrolls figure growth was “too bad to be true,” and there’s scope for an upward revision, he said.

TD Securities

  • 165,000 jobs, 3.8 percent unemployment, 3.3 percent wage growth
  • “We expect a recovery in employment in the construction sector following a sharp decline in February that likely reflected some impact from adverse weather,” write analysts led by Michael Hanson, head of global macro strategy. “Manufacturing and services jobs should also register more trend-like gains.”

Citigroup (NYSE:C)

  • 170,000 jobs, 3.8 percent unemployment, 3.3 percent wage growth
  • “An upside surprise would support our view that underlying activity remains solid, implying little need for a rate cut from the Fed this year,” economist Veronica Clark writes. “However, the more substantial market reaction could be in the event of another sub-100k downside surprise.”

Nomura

  • 170,000 jobs, 3.8 percent unemployment, 3.2 percent wage growth
  • “While we expect moderate strength to continue over the medium term, incoming data during March suggests some room for caution when evaluating the labor market outlook during the month,” Chief U.S. Economist Lewis Alexander writes. “We do not expect a full reversal of February’s weak number and believe the below-consensus reading was likely due to payback from unusually strong increases over previous months and idiosyncratic factors such as weather.”

Bloomberg Economics

  • 175,000 jobs, 3.8 percent unemployment, 3.4 percent wage growth
  • “Previous hiring stumbles were not sustained for very long, and the recoveries have been particularly swift as the unemployment rate moved back into more normal territory,” write economists Carl Riccadonna and Yelena Shulyatyeva. “Past performance presents an encouraging case for a solid rebound.”

NatWest Markets

  • 175,000 jobs, 3.8 percent unemployment, 3.4 percent wage growth
  • “While these results would mark another solid performance, the data are unlikely to end the debate on the direction of the next Fed move,” writes Chief U.S. Economist Michelle Girard. Despite February’s smallest payroll gain since September 2017, “we do not believe that labor market conditions have deteriorated that dramatically. Weather may have exacerbated the February weakness.”

Goldman Sachs

  • 190,000 jobs, 3.8 percent unemployment, 3.3 percent wage growth
  • “While we believe the trend in job growth has slowed from last year’s strong pace, renewed declines in jobless claims and the resilience in business surveys suggest that the trend remains nicely above potential,” writes economist Spencer Hill. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). is the most accurate payrolls forecaster in Bloomberg’s latest quarterly ranking.

Jefferies

  • 195,000 jobs, 3.8 percent unemployment, 3.4 percent wage growth
  • “Payrolls will rebound after the anemic February data,” writes Chief Financial Economist Ward McCarthy. “The outlier effect also needs to be viewed in the context of the typical pattern for March payrolls. March payroll growth has tended to be moderate, and there have been periodic downside surprises.”

What Economists Are Saying Ahead of the March U.S. Jobs Report
 

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (1)
Will Stone
Will Stone Apr 05, 2019 7:39AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
120,000 jobs 3.7 unemployment 3.6 wage
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email