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U.S. CPI falls to 6.0% in February, as expected, but core prices still strong

Published 03/14/2023, 08:13 AM
Updated 03/14/2023, 08:30 AM
© Reuters

By Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com -- U.S. headline inflation slowed again last month but core prices continued to rise at an uncomfortably fast pace, as housing rents continued their sharp rise.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index rose by 0.4% in February, a slowdown from 0.5% in January. The annual rate of inflation fell to 6.0% from 6.4% and is now down by one-third from its peak of over 9% in June last year.

Even so, it remains at three times the Federal Reserve's targeted rate of 2% and gives the central bank little extra leeway in its battle to tame inflation.

However, the headline rate was flattered by a fall in energy prices, and by ongoing deflation in the used car market, where prices fell by another 2.8% as the supply chain disruptions of the pandemic faded into the rearview mirror.

Stripped of volatile components, core prices rose by a chunky 0.5%, an acceleration from 0.4% last month. The annual core rate consequently slowed much less than the headline rate, falling to 5.5% from 5.6% in February.

The cost of shelter rose by another 0.8% and accounted for over 70% of the total rise in prices. Food also continues to be a headache for consumers and the central bank. The price of food at home rose a relatively modest 0.3% but was up 10.2% from a year earlier, while the cost of eating out rose by 0.6% and was up 8.4%.

"Another hot core CPI print," tweeted Mike Konczal, director of macroeconomic research at the Roosevelt Institute, noting that the core price index is only moving sideways, rather than coming down as the Fed would like.

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Financial markets nonetheless reacted positively to the news, which at least failed to generate anything like the shock that January's overshoot had done. By 07:45 ET (12:45 GMT), S&P 500 Futures were up 0.8%, while Dow Jones Futures were up 196 points, or 0.6%. The dollar index, meanwhile, trimmed its earlier gains to hit an intraday low of 103.09 before bouncing a little to trade at 103.23, up 0.1% on the day.

"The disinflationary road will be bumpy, but we're still on it," said Greg Daco, chief economist with EY.

Investors appeared to take the print as being mild enough to remove any desire for a 50 basis point rate hike at its policy meeting next week, against the backdrop of banking failures on the West Coast that suggest its previous rate hikes have finally fed through to the banking system. Goldman Sachs analysts said at the weekend that they expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at the coming meeting, rather than aggravate concerns about financial stability.

Latest comments

People's lack of understanding on the relationship between Fed rate hikes, the bond market, the stock market, inflation, the health of our banks, the health of pension funds, our nation's debt service, our national debt, etc. is staggering. Raising interest rates to fight inflation is 1970's playbook. We're not in the 1970's, we're in uncharted waters. The Fed continuing to raise rates after the 2nd and 3rd biggest banking failures in US history is financial suicide. Your short position on the equity markets doesn't matter that much....
Feb CPI details show once again that inflation rages in Services categories at the worst levels in four decades, while inflation in many Goods categories continue to decline some. US is predominantly a Services economy now. Skilled and qualified labor is a key issue, along with nonproductive government spending.
Most corrupt, incompetent admin ever!!
based on what exactly?
global crisis, inflation crisis, border crisis, banking crisis, 2 years of stagnant market. Other than labor (for the moment), tough to see anything positive
If you strip out all the essential stuff they say is volatile like food housing and energy then they can say whatever they want. Inflation is down because flat screen TVs are cheaper. To the average Joe inflation is up.
We are living in Bramdonverse which is inflating exponentially!
the basic problem with this entire interpretation is, the core CPI excludes energy, and food costs. given this fact, what is the real inflation rate?
Second paragraph: "0.4% in February, a slowdown from 0.5% in January."
double digits
Right! A zero a decimal and another digit. Very astute!
Egg price still hit new high or we’re living in the multiverse?
ask any home owner, inflation is way higher than 5% per month. more like 20%
govt is lair , American, do not believe on Biden at all
If you say so. It sounds like you are an expert.
Moodys cuts ratings on banks to negative. Keep buying stocks.
fake news
Bidenomics continues.
LOL. Real strong case you make there.
inflation is still higher than GDP increased but yes, economy is generally making improvements.
Of course. Happy to have a clear-eyed view. But the sky is falling and Biden is to blame myopia is derisible.
Fall? Or creep? You can’t believe these liars in government
over optimistic. self fueling inflation is here.
What foolish energy policy? The Alaskan Willow oil drilling Biden just approved or something imaginary?
Let's start with Biden EO on 1/27/2021 section 208. There a long list. Biden opposed $COP Willow project until Republicans and reasonable Democrats from Alaska got it through with force.
They forced Biden to sign it? Wow! That's something. You should alert the media. As for the rest of your "long list", I count one item, calling for a review of oil and gas leases under section 208. Bye, bye now chuckles.
Core cpi fell too
oh sure sure it's not cook at all surely in a month we are not going to have a stronger reading revised 😂
The last three reports have been adjusted by 0. Sometimes they are revised up, sometimes down. These revisions are for the sake of accuracy, but apparently they also serve to feed the paranoia of feeble minds.
if the revisions were fake then they would always be positive. But of course its just another trick to make people feel confident enough to invest in the PONZI SCHEME THAT IS THE JOKE OF THE FINANCIAL WORLD!
LOL.
So housing/shelter accounted for 70% of core CPI Feb increase. Ironically, higher rates are a major reason for this. Inventory of resales is extremely low because few sellers want to trade up to a higher rate mortgage. Demand for rentals is high reflecting lack of affordable mortgages and rental inventory is low so rental rates keep going up. This is a classic Catch 22 - the more the FED raises rates shelter costs keep going up. STOP the rate increases and give the shelter market time to settle down!
when rate went to zero (kind of!)..does the rent went down ?
no because only additional supply will curb housing inflation! Congess needs to incentivize builders to build more, we're 5,000,000+ units short.
0618383957
In Las Vegas the price of a dozen eggs dropped from $8 to $2.69 by first week of March. FED needs to be more patient and give rate hikes more time to work. Can’t expect rapid price declines after pandemic that restricted production and supply for 3 years. A big part of sticky inflation is sustained price gauging by most industries. That will only abate over time as competitors lower prices.
eggs. h1n1 virus was the egg problem.
Good comment Steven. It's a lot easier to concoct conspiracies from unfounded suspicions for a lot of people though, apparently.
Perma bulls continue to inflate false bubbles. Basic Economics Lost
The Weimar United States Republic
Now we get to deal with numbers that seem to perfectly fit a bull market. When baseline inflation continues to be strong on the consumer.
Good luck shorts.
Cooked by the BLS ! Look in the core and CPI is exploding upward! Yep, stagflation! Prives are dropping for durable goods massively , but it means nobody can buy . The real CPI is in “survivables” like food
Which is it? Are the books cooked or do you want us to accept them as the premise for your evaluation? Make up your mind. You can't have it both ways
AMERICA. YOU NEED TO SAVE YOUR BANKS!!! BANK IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN HUNGRY PEOPLE WITH NO WHERE TO LIVE.. Because a banker has money and doesn't care about the value of housing and food.
Great nations can do many things at once. You should visit.
raising rates won't make housing, transportation or food more affordable -- increased supply will.
If you don't like América, emigrate to another land, maybe Portugal, maybe Brasil, maybe Venezuela.
Oh no! Eggs are still too expensive. Now Jpow and the Fed will bring "Great Depression 2" ! Why can't rich folks just get egg laying hens like us peasants? Complicated solutions for simple problems, brought to you by the creature from jekyll island, aka the Fed
I tried to get an iPhone laying hen, but couldn't find one. Any advice from the peasants' perspective?
So much for all the articles your writers put out saying the CPI would come in hot. Hope nobody listens to them and just plays the price action
It did! What are you looking at? The fluff to justify another unjustified rally that will fizzle just like the last 100…
Investors can always look forward future datas while analysts will manipulate the news.......
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