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Investing.com -- HelloFresh SE shares fell over 8% on Wednesday after the German meal kit company forecast lower profit in 2026 and a further revenue decline, with its guidance midpoint coming in 5.5% below analyst consensus despite full-year earnings rising on the back of aggressive cost cuts.
The Berlin-based company guided for 2026 AEBITDA of €375 million to €425 million, below the €422.8 million reported for 2025, blaming first-quarter cold weather disruptions, product reinvestments and planned exits from Italy and Spain.
The guidance midpoint of €400 million fell 5.5% short of analyst consensus of €423 million. Revenue is expected to fall a further 3% to 6% in constant currency, against a consensus estimate of minus 2.8%.
Fourth-quarter revenue and AEBITDA landed within 1% of consensus, making the guide-down the primary focus of results day.
Full-year 2025 group AEBITDA rose 14% in constant currency from €399.4 million, within guided range, as €160 million in savings from an ongoing €300 million efficiency programme offset a sharp volume decline.
Total orders fell 12.3% to 100.53 million from 114.63 million, with meals delivered down 11.8% to 851.6 million. Revenue fell 9% in constant currency to €6.76 billion from €7.66 billion.
North America, the largest segment, saw orders drop 17% to 53.66 million, with constant currency revenue declining 13% to €4.38 billion from €5.04 billion.
The meal kit division posted AEBITDA of €634.2 million, up 17% from €542.3 million, with margins expanding to 13.5% from 9.8%.
The Ready-to-Eat segment was a significant drag. Full-year RTE AEBITDA swung to a loss of €23.6 million from a profit of €31.6 million in 2024, as regulatory-driven manufacturing disruptions in the U.S. hurt customer retention.
The RTE AEBITDA margin fell to negative 1.2% from positive 1.6%. The company said bottlenecks have been resolved but residual retention damage would continue to weigh on 2026 performance.
Free cash flow turned positive at €18.9 million for the full year, reversing a €23.6 million deficit in 2024. Cash and cash equivalents fell to €211.1 million from €486.7 million at end-2024.
Chief Executive Dominik Richter said the company had deliberately sequenced cost cuts ahead of growth spending. "Efficiency creates margin room, margin room funds product reinvestment, better products drive retention, and retention is what ultimately unlocks sustainable, profitable growth," he said.
Jefferies, which maintained a “buy” rating and a €8.70 price target on HelloFresh shares against a prior close of €4.56, said management’s attribution of the 2026 AEBITDA decline primarily to weather disruptions "won’t be much help to the equity today."
HelloFresh expects €140 million in incremental savings in 2026, funding reinvestments alongside modest price increases.
