Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Energy & Precious Metals - Weekly Review and Calendar Ahead

CommoditiesApr 25, 2021 04:13AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com — Crude prices fell after bolting higher the previous week while gold failed again at the $1,800 test, setting both up for pivotal moves next week as oil producers’ cartel OPEC+ and the Federal Reserve gather for their monthly meetings.

Idiosyncrasy may also be the order for all markets next week as the White House begins releasing details of President Joe Biden’s purported tax hike on the wealthiest of Americans. 

Biden reportedly wants to raise the federal capital gains tax to 43.4% for the richest of individuals, bringing combined state and federal rates in places such as New York and California to well above 50% — the highest ever in U.S. history. The president is targeting 0.3% of the American population to fund about $1 trillion in childcare, universal pre-kindergarten education and paid leave for workers. But he will need to overcome a major political hurdle in Congress to do so, Bloomberg reports.

While we await the administration’s word on this, let’s focus on what’s likely to happen in the energy and precious metals space, starting with Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting.

If we were to believe the producers’ cartel, nothing material will come out of the April 28 meeting, which is to ratify pre-agreed production quotas for May through July.

The 23-member OPEC+ — which comprises the original 13 members of OPEC (i.e. the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and 10 other oil producing nations steered by Russia — decided on April 1 to increase output by 350,000 bpd in May and June and by more than 400,000 bpd in July. 

Additionally, Saudi Arabia will also ease its unilateral cut of 1 million bpd over the same period, beginning with increases of 250,000 bpd in May and June.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, commenting ahead of the meeting, said the idea was “to review the market situation once again” before the start of May-July quotas. 

Said Novak: “We made our plans a month ago, so if nothing out of the ordinary happens in the meantime, next week’s meeting will confirm those plans or tweak them.”

The trouble is, quite a lot has happened — in India and Japan, especially, in terms of Covid.

In Vienna too, Iran has been making rapid progress with the United States on talks for a nuclear deal that would free it from Trump-era sanctions to once again export its oil.

On the Covid front, India’s deaths are being overlooked or downplayed, understating the human toll of the outbreak, which accounts for nearly half of all new global cases of the pandemic. With hospitals unbearably full, oxygen supplies running low and people in line dying before they can see doctors, India’s second coronavirus wave is shaping into a crisis beyond help. To visualize what’s happening, think “Italy” in 2020 and add another 1.4 billion people to the mix.

In Japan, the government has declared a targeted state of emergency for Tokyo, Osaka and two other prefectures in an attempt to halt a surge in coronavirus cases, just three months before the Tokyo Olympics.

Iran has, meanwhile, made headway in Vienna talks with world powers though more work is needed, a senior European Union official said. With meetings to resume in the Austrian capital next week, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also “assessed the current trend of the talks as going forward, despite the existing difficulties and challenges,” state media reported.

To underscore the importance of these developments, oil prices fell as much as 3% between Tuesday and Wednesday on worries about the Covid situation in India and Japan, and on talk that Iran could win a nuclear deal by May that would allow it to put some two million additional barrels a day on the market.

Futures of both U.S. crude and U.K.’s Brent oil rose in the last two days of the week, but not enough to offset their dismal start. 

“Gains in oil are likely to remain capped until India and Japan, as the third and fourth-largest oil consumers, turn a corner in their battle against the virus,” said Sophie Griffiths, head of UK and EMEA research for online broker OANDA.

Novak, speaking ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, described the oil market as “balanced,” saying that if a supply deficit occurred, the cartel could always pump more.

Given the circumstances, it would appear more like a surplus might be in order in the coming months, and the cartel would be pumping less.

For context, oil prices fell to a historic negative pricing of minus $40 per barrel in April 2020 at the height of the Covid-led demand destruction. Production cuts by OPEC+ since then helped the market stage a remarkable recovery, with the rebound accelerating after vaccine breakthroughs in November.

On the gold front, the yellow metal ended the week uneventfully despite coming precariously close to the $1,800 level that would have been key for it to recapture last year’s highs.

It was a crushing disappointment for longs who had been counting on a more meaningful advance in gold after a nine-week high of $1,796.15 on Friday. The last time Comex gold traded above $1,800 was on Feb. 25.

With the weight of the Fed meeting hanging over markets, analysts said gold prices were likely to drift until the central bank’s monthly event was out of the day.

“Dampening demand for safe-havens has capped the rally in gold,” said Ed Moya, analyst at New York’s OANDA. “Gold prices will likely consolidate leading up to the Fed between $1,760 and $1,800.”

Fed Chair Jay Powell, in an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, said the central bank will limit any overshoot of its inflation target. 

The U.S. economy is going to temporarily see "a little higher" inflation this year as the recovery strengthens and supply constraints push up prices in some sectors, but the Fed is committed to keeping inflation anchored at 2% over the longer term, Powell said.

Powell also sought to allay the concerns that the Fed's bond purchases would unleash an unprecedented amount of deficit spending and borrowing by Congress.

Congress has approved an unprecedented $6 trillion in aid between the Trump and Biden administrations to help Americans weather the COVID-19.

The central bank's bond-buying, Powell said, was aimed at keeping financial conditions easy and markets functioning, and is "unrelated to the magnitude of fiscal deficits," adding that the Fed doesn't buy bonds directly from the government.

Policymakers are thus expected to stick with super-easy monetary policy at their meeting next week, even as the economy strengthens and increasing vaccinations make a return to a more normal life in the United States likely in 2021.

Gold Price Roundup

Benchmark gold futures on New York’s Comex did a final trade of $1,776.75 before the weekend. Comex gold settled Friday’s session down $4.20, or 0.2%, at $1,777.80 an ounce. For the week, it dipped 0.1%.

The spot price of gold settled at $1,777.11, down $6.88, or 0.4%. For the week, spot gold rose 0.1%. Moves in spot gold are integral to fund managers, who sometimes rely more on it than futures for direction.

Oil Price Roundup

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, did a final trade of $62.05 before the weekend. It settled Friday’s trade at $62.14 a barrel, up 71 cents, or 1.2%, on the day. It fell 1.6% for the week. 

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for crude, did a final trade of $65.99 prior to the weekend. It settled Friday’s trade at $66.11, up 71 cents, or 1.1%. For the week, it fell 1%. 

Energy Markets Calendar Ahead

Monday, April 26

Private Cushing stockpile estimates

Tuesday, April 27

American Petroleum Institute weekly report on oil stockpiles.

Wednesday, April 28

EIA weekly report on crude stockpiles

EIA weekly report on gasoline stockpiles

EIA weekly report on distillates inventories 

OPEC Meeting and news conference 

Thursday, April 29

EIA weekly report on natural gas storage

Friday, April 30

Baker Hughes weekly survey on U.S. oil rigs

Disclaimer: Barani Krishnan uses a range of views outside his own to bring diversity to his analysis of any market. For neutrality, he sometimes presents contrarian views and market variables. He does not hold a position in the commodities and securities he writes about.

Energy & Precious Metals - Weekly Review and Calendar Ahead
 

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (6)
Jan Skilbrei
Jan Skilbrei Apr 26, 2021 3:17AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
thanks, Barani, it is good to have you who can explain practically for us who are up against the odds (big banks, long money, the 'expensive' intelligence houses). If it is so that we will have inflation caused by eg shortages of chips, skilled personnel etc, but governments cant afford yield go much higher since they are deep into depths in their budgets, maybe now it's soon time for gold and stocks benefitting from weaker dollar and inflation to improve/appreciate?
Steven Collar
Steven Collar Apr 25, 2021 12:49PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
What Biden wants to use the tax money for may be worse for the nation than the tax itself.
Jack Drummond
Jack Drummond Apr 25, 2021 12:49PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
What all of you have missed is the fantastic amount of taxes unpaid by the hotshot Corporations. For one thing, why are there taxes deferred for Apple, Amazon, and their ilk? If these enormously profitable companies want to offshore their income, they should offshore their operations. If they want to use the existing and future US infrastructure, have them pay for overloaded trucks and data networks. God help us if FOX, Newsmax, and OAN rally people (who wouldn't know a prospectus if it fell on them) to oppose rich corporations paying their fair share- and by their intentional ignorance, make us suffer the slings and arrows of living in an (avoidable) second-world economy AND a worn-out country.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 25, 2021 12:49PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Jack Drummond  Thanks Jack for that blinding light from the left side of the field. As we get deeper into this, it's amazing how many insights and views out there that have not yet been pondered. As always, value your thoughts, and do have a great week ahead! - B
Roberta Garrett
Roberta Garrett Apr 25, 2021 11:22AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Somehow I don't cry for taxes being raised on the .3% boo, hoo. The truth is they don't pay the lions share, at least not since the 1980's.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 25, 2021 11:22AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Totally, Roberta.
Bob Crone
Bob Crone Apr 25, 2021 11:22AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Nope. Top 5% pay 64% of the taxes. You're welcome [and shoukd have pakd attention in math class.].
Bob Crone
Bob Crone Apr 25, 2021 11:22AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Bob Crone typo! Only pay 40.4% LMAO
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 25, 2021 11:22AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Bob Crone  Not really an apple to apple comparison, mate, when you're pitting 5% against 0.3%. You're effectively drawing in some of the top middle class (beyond 2%) and arguably they pay a lot more than the average person. Thanks for the perspective though.
amuzie chukwuka
amuzie chukwuka Apr 25, 2021 10:17AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Matt luck
Matt luck Apr 25, 2021 9:34AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Eisenhower had a top income tax rate of 92% is that not higher than 50%?
Ronald Warren
Ronald Warren Apr 25, 2021 9:34AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
I believe the article is referring to capital gains tax exclusively. Not the income tax rate. Of course, that would be additional.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 25, 2021 9:34AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Ronald Warren  Thanks much for clarifying that.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 25, 2021 9:34AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Matt, there are more details here: https://taxfoundation.org
Annaliza Jayagan
Annaliza Jayagan Apr 25, 2021 9:22AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email