US begins review of Nvidia AI chip sales to China, Reuters reports; shares rise
After the significant easing steps in June we expect the ECB to largely repeat the message from the June meeting at today's meeting, see ECB Preview. There will probably be focus on some of the unanswered questions about the announced easing measures, particularly in relation to the TLTROs and ECB's commitment to a an ABS purchase program at a later stage. However, we doubt that ECB is ready to provide substantial new details at the current juncture.
In the US the June labour market report is due for release. We expect non-farm payrolls to have increased 225k in June, broadly in line with the pace in recent months. Although our forecast is a little above consensus, the strong ADP-private employment report released yesterday suggests some upside risk to our forecast. We expect the unemployment rate to have remained unchanged at 6.3% in June.
Euro area retail sales have been strong in 2014 compared with 2013 and we expect the trend to continue as consumer confidence continues its upward trend. We look for a 0.2% m/m reading.
UK services PMI is expected to stay roughly unchanged from the last reading of 58.6, although manufacturing and construction surveys released earlier this week suggest some upside risk.
In the US the ISM non-manufacturing will also be released today. We expect a slight decline to 55.3 from 56.3 in light of the relatively large increase in ISM non-manufacturing in recent months, which to some degree is a weather-related rebound that in our view might have lost a bit of momentum in June.
We expect a 25bp cut and a lowering of the interest rate path at today's Riksbank meeting.
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