Will ECB President Draghi Deliver?

The dollar was soft overnight as markets reacted to rumors that the ECB was about to announce unlimited bond purchases at the ECB Meeting. The EUR/USD shot up to 1.2600 and we are once again in danger of disappointment if Draghi does not come to the party. Looking ahead, August ISM Services PMI forecast at 52.5 vs. 52.6. August ADP Private Payrolls forecast at 140k vs. 163k previously.

The Euro (EUR)
Attention is now firmly on the ECB and some traders have overlooked another major development overnight with the EUR/CHF lifting off the 1.2000 level to rest at 1.2040 as we speak. The euro will be volatile today so traders should use strong risk management practices when deciding where to place stops.

The Sterling (GBP)
The GBP/USD broke and closed above 1.5900 and is looking strong well positioned to test the major 1.6000 level if stocks react positively to the BOE/ECB double tonight. Looking ahead, Bank of England Meeting forecast to hold at 0.5% and keep asset purchase program at 375bn. ECB Rate meeting forecast to hold at 0.75%. Focus on ECB President Draghi Speech at 4:30GMT.

The Japanese Yen (JPY)
The USD/JPY is gathering strength on dips and is trying to gain a foothold above the Y78.50 level. EUR/JPY is supporting as it moves higher and higher with growing enthusiasm that the ECB will deliver today. The US Jobs data will be more important for major USD/JPY tomorrow night.

Australian Dollar (AUD)
Support was found under 1.0170 overnight and we bounced back above 1.0200. Q2 GDP was slightly worse than expected yesterday at 0.6% vs. 0.7% previously. August Unemployment was mixed with a fall -8k jobs but also a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%. The Aussie will follow the stock market’s reaction to the ECB tonight. Looking ahead, Trade Balance forecast at -300mn vs. 9mn previously.

Oil and Gold (XAU)
Gold is still holding at highs with buyers supporting under $1690 and sellers capping at $1700. OIL/USD was volatile finding support at $94.50 before bouncing above $96 a barrel. The outlook is very mixed for oil but the recent uptrend should be favored.

Pairs To Watch
EUR/USD: ECB to make or break EUR/USD rally.

XAU/USD: Will more violently tonight after the ECB.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY