USD/TRY: Turkey Interest Rate Decision will be published today.
If we look at last month, due to the Turkish lira weakness, Turkey's central bank interest rates have increased unexpectedly. Late Liquidity raised its lending rate by 300 basis points to 16.5%. Also, the CBRT took a simplification step and then they updated the Central Bank policy interest rate as 16.50% too. The overnight borrowing and lending rates of the Central Bank are determined by a margin of - / + 150 basis points compared to the one-week repo rate. However, the USD/TRY downward reaction was limited after the surprise decisions
Looking ahead, today’s rate decision will be very critical for Turkish lira, especially just before the election, The Central Bank should continue to have the tight monetary policy. As long as inflation and unemployment remain in double-digit levels, the TL weakness is most likely dominate.
If there is no change in interest rates today, we might see bullish action in USD/TRY pair. At this point, The resistance levels can be found at 4.6620 and 4.7520. On the other hand, If the central bank hikes rate, we will see 4.4656 and 4.3935 as support levels.
Support: 4.4656 – 4.3935 – 4.3489
Resistance: 4.5798 – 4.6620 – 4.7520
EUR/USD: We will focus on the eurozone GDP growth numbers for the first quarter today. The GDP is expected to come out at 0.4% q-o-q growth as the same as previous number. This would lead to an annual realization of 2.5%. A better than expected realization may support EUR/USD.
The euro has extended gains versus the US dollar and it is now testing the daily resistance level of 1.1812. In order for the rise to continue, it needs to go beyond 1.1812 and sustain above that level on a daily basis. At this point, the next resistance level will be at 1.1884. Otherwise, the upward movement may be limited and we will see 1.1768 and 1.1720 as support level again.
Support: 1.1768 – 1.1720 – 1.1660
Resistance: 1.1812 – 1.2884 – 1.1968
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair hit the major resistance level of 1.3447. In order for the bullish action to continue, it needs to rise and stay above 1.3447 on a daily basis. At this point, the next resistance level can be found at 1.3536. Otherwise, the rise may be limited and we will face support level at 1.3338.
Support: 1.3338 – 1.3241 – 1.3198
Resistance: 1.3536 – 1.3651 – 1.3745