Welcome To The June Glooms: Odds On Brexit?

I think globally each week. Do you? Follow me on twitter @johnblank100

We are just under 3 weeks away from the June 23rd Brexit vote in the U.K.

Do we see U.K. macro consequences to Brexit presently? YES.

Uncertainty surrounding the Brexit outcome (joining nonstop press chatter) is putting a palpable stall into the U.K.’s looming macro data.

For example, the U.K.’s housing indexes out this week should cool slightly by-0.2% y/y. U.K. construction output should be a tad weaker at -4.9% y/y, worse than a prior -4.5% y/y. U.K industrial production should be down -0.3% y/y from a prior -0.2%. These 3 signs of fundamental U.K. business sector weakness come out this week. There are surely more.

• According to a Reuters report, out on Monday June 6th, the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union took a 4 to 5 percentage point lead in 2 recent polls.
• An ICM poll of 1,741 people taken June 3-5 showed 48% would vote to leave, up from 47% a week earlier, while 43% would opt to stay, down 1% from a week earlier.
• A YouGov poll of 3,495 people on June 1-3 showed 45% would opt to leave the EU, up from 40% in a comparable poll a month earlier, while 41% would opt to stay, down from 42%.
• Of the eight most recently published surveys, one opinion poll was tied, two showed “Stay” ahead, and five have showed “Leave” in the lead.
• The poll showed 11% of voters were still undecided, down 2% from a month earlier. There remains a sizeable contingent of undecided voters. These will swing the Brexit vote.
• The U.K. pound traded at $1.44 on Monday, June 6th. According to one published FT comment, versus the US dollar, a swift move towards $1.25 by the U.K. pound looks possible.
• There is also the risk of an even larger U.K. FX shift if the Bank of England cuts rates — or if the Brexit vote leads to political turmoil — and a possible constitutional crisis where Scotland demands a new independence referendum.

Here are three strong large cap global names worth checking out --

(1) Take a look at the Continental AG (DE:CONG) ADRs (OTC:CTTAY) .

This is a $42 billion market cap European stock tied to a big German multi-national tire company. The stocks gets a Zacks #1 Rank stock and it also has a long-term Zacks VGM rating of A.

(2) Another strong global stock remains Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM) .

This is a $34 billion market cap global commercial real estate company based in Canada. The stock gets a Zacks #1 Rank. Major Canadian indexes are currently experiencing a bull market, lifted by the rise in oil prices since the mid-Fed lows.

(3) A final Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) stock to look into is WPP (LON:WPP) (NASDAQ:WPPGY) .

WPP PLC operates as a global communications services group. This $30 billion in market cap Company organizes itself into segments: Advertising, Media Investment Management, Consumer Insight, Public Relations & Public Affairs, Branding & Identity, Healthcare and Specialist Communications.

WPP PLC is based in Dublin, Ireland.

A final rejoinder -- None of my 3 stock picks in this Global Week Ahead lists primarily on U.K. stock exchanges. Given the latest Brexit polls, you can be right --or you can be very wrong-- on U.K. stocks at the moment.

Key Global/Macro indicators out this week—

On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix indicator came in at 9.9 versus a prior of 6.2.

Mexican private domestic consumption should be up +6% from a prior +5.1% y/y.

The Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Helsinki and the Fed’s Yellen speaks in Philadelphia.

On Tuesday, the U.K. closely watched Halifax House Price Index should be up +9.0% y/y from a prior +9.2% y/y rate.

German industrial production may get up to +1% from a prior +0.3%.

Spanish industrial production (nsa) looks flat, while the prior reading was -2.4% y/y. In other words, flat is an improvement.

Japan should see a strong 2% q/q annualized GDP report this time around.

The Eurozone final GDP should be +1.5%. This is very old news.

The ECB publishes its 2016 Convergence Report.

On Wednesday, the U.K.’s industrial production number looks to be -0.3% y/y from a prior -0.2% y/y.

Sweden’s unemployment rate should be 3.6%, down from a prior 3.8%.

South Africa’s GDP looks to be -0.1% q/q annualized. That’s weak growth.

Canada’s building permits should be up +2.3% from a -7% earlier m/m number. That looks seasonal to me. Housing starts here are looking flat.

Japan’s Key Machinery Orders look to be down -1.9% y/y from a prior +3.2% y/y.

Brazil’s Central Bank (COPOM) holds a monetary policy meeting. The policy SELIC rate of 14.25% should hold on.

China reports imports and exports. Exports look down -4% and imports -6.7% y/y.

On Thursday, China’s CPI should be +2.2%, but the PPI looks weak at -3.1% y/y. If China has producer price deflation, that keeps the world struggling with its CPI.

The Bank of Korea (BoK) announces an interest rate decision.

Mexico’s CPI should be +2.57% y/y.

U.S. initial claims should be 265K. That’s strong.

The ECB’s Draghi speaks in Brussels.

On Friday, the U.K.’s construction output looks weak at -4.9% y/y, which is worse than the prior -4.5% y/y.

Canada’s unemployment rate should be flat at 7.1%.

Mexico’s industrial production should be up +0.2% y/y from a prior -2% y/y.

The U.S. University of Michigan sentiment indicator should be 94.5 from a prior 94.7.

French industrial production should be up +1% y/y from a prior -0.8% y/y.

There is a Russian central bank rate announcement and press conference.