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Weekly Market Brief: Forecasts For The FTSE, DAX, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 And Dow

By Francesco BergaminiMarket OverviewSep 24, 2022 04:54AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/weekly-market-brief-forecasts-for-the-ftse-dax-nasdaq-100-sp-500-and-dow-200630256
Weekly Market Brief: Forecasts For The FTSE, DAX, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 And Dow
By Francesco Bergamini   |  Sep 24, 2022 04:54AM ET
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FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 index had a week down by - 3.01%. For the week ahead, we favor recovery to at least 7,150. 

Indicators

Week of significant declines for the British index, which now sees the price testing again the 7,000 level.

Daily chart: FTSE 100.
Daily chart: FTSE 100.

The exit from the Bollinger bands and the distance from the 50MA (yellow line) make us lean towards a recovery of vigor for the end of September.

MACD and RSI are both significantly extended to the downside, and looking at previous swings; it is desirable to expect a recovery. On the RSI, it is essential to note a positive divergence with the minimum reached in September.

A price recovery could see its first target at the breaking point at 7.150, followed by a continuation up to 7.320.

We are positive on the FTSE100, expecting a sizeable rebound after the most recent declines.

  • Support at 7,000
  • Resistance at 7,500

FTSE MIB 

The FTSE MIB index had a week down by -4.72%. For the week ahead, we favor recovery to at least 21,700.

Indicators

The moves on Friday broke the short phase of rising lows that began in July 2022 and brought the index back into a substantial consolidation phase.

Daily chart: FTSEMIB
Daily chart: FTSEMIB

MACD and RSI are in bearish territory, especially the latter, by being close to the oversold area. 

While we believe the recovery in July is very positive in the medium term, we believe it is appropriate to wait for price confirmation.

Given the importance of Friday's candle, we believe it is appropriate to remain neutral on the FTSEMIB. The price is attractive, but it needs confirmation before considering long setups.

  • Support at 21,500
  • Resistance at 23,650

DAX 40

The DAX index had a week down by -3.59%. For the coming week, we favor a possible recovery to at least 12,800.

Indicators

Week that sees once again respecting the solid bearish trend line that started in January 2022.

Daily chart: DAX
Daily chart: DAX

The price is now near the strong support at 12.600, which we believe will again play the role of a reversal area.

MACD and RSI are both negative, but we can see a positive divergence with the price action when this reached the support at 12.600.

We are currently still neutral on the DAX and in the process of considering long setups once we break above 13,250.

  • Support at 12,600
  • Resistance at 13,600

S&P 500

The S&P 500 index was down by -4.70%. For the week ahead, we favor a possible recovery to at least 3,800-3,900.

Indicators

The week saw the index overcoming the strong support at 3,830 and now near the lows reached in June.

Daily chart: SPX.
Daily chart: SPX.

MACD and RSI perfectly describe the bearish period of the index, with the first below 0 and the second now in the oversold area.

To understand when the price can begin the long-awaited upward recovery, we believe it is appropriate to rely on the breakdown of the bearish trendlines on the index.

First, we identify starting from Aug. 16 (short term) and the second starting from January 2022 ( long period).

We remain neutral on the S&P 500 and are ready to consider long setups at breaking the short-term bearish trendline, which could come with consolidation above 3,800.

The current level is exciting but requires price confirmations before considering a long positioning.

  • Support at 3,645
  • Resistance at 4,100

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index had a week down by -4.64%. For the week ahead, we favor a possible recovery to at least 11,800-12,000.

Indicators

Week that now sees the Tech index moving in the area tested in June 2022.

The steep declines have now taken the price out of the Bollinger bands and are distant from the 9 (red line) and 50 (yellow line) MA.

Daily chart: NDX
Daily chart: NDX

Looking at past price action, it is possible to expect a bullish recovery of at least 12,250-12,500 in the short-medium term.

MACD and RSI describe the period of strong bearish extension by being, especially, the RSI, in oversold territory.

Given the strong downward extension of both price and indicators, we are slightly positive on the NASDAQ believing that risk/return is now heavily skewed in favor of short to the medium-term upside.

We will only have further confirmation from overcoming the 9 and 50 moving averages.

  • Support at 11,700
  • Resistance at 13,500

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index had a week down by -4.00%. For the coming week, we favor a possible recovery to at least 31,500.

Indicators

Week that brings the American index back to the lows of June 2022. After the strong Friday's selling pressure, the price is now outside the Bollinger bands, with a considerable distance from the main moving averages at 9 (red line) and 50 (yellow line ) days.

Daily chart: DJI
Daily chart: DJI

MACD and RSI are aligned with the price action, also being very extensive on the downside. In particular, the RSI is now in oversold territory.

Given the strong downward extension of indicators and prices, we believe the risk/return is now skewed in favor of short-medium term rises.

We are positive on the dow jones, expecting a possible recovery of vigor, which sees the strong level of 32,000 as a short-term and intermediate resistance target.

  • Support at 29,170
  • Resistance at 32,000
Weekly Market Brief: Forecasts For The FTSE, DAX, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 And Dow
 

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Weekly Market Brief: Forecasts For The FTSE, DAX, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 And Dow

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