Weekly Forex Market Recap: Week Of February 16-20

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of February 16th through February 20th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of February 16th through February 20th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, February 15th

• 9:45pm NZD Retail Sales 1.7% versus 1.7% expected. The currency fell.
• 9:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales 1.5% versus 1.5% expected. The currency fell.
• 11:50pm JPY Preliminary GDP 0.6% versus 0.9% expected. The currency fell.

Monday, February 16th

• 12:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales -1.5% versus last 3.0% expected. The currency fell.
• All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings noted that, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Eurogroup president and Dutch finance minister, said that, "The next step has to come from the Greek authorities; they have to make up their mind. We are ready and willing to reach an honourable agreement … no one has the right to work towards a dead end especially one that is mutually detrimental for all Europeans.” The currency fell.
• All Day USD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, February 17th

• 12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, "The Australian dollar had depreciated by around 9 per cent against the US dollar since the December meeting. On a trade-weighted basis, the Australian dollar was around 4 per cent below its early 2014 levels, notwithstanding significant falls in commodity prices over the intervening period. The depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar and renminbi had been partly offset by its appreciation against the yen and euro. " The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP CPI 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP PPI Input -3.7% versus -2.1% expected. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP RPI 1.1% versus 1.2% expected. The currency rose.
• 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey 53.0 versus 56.2 expected. The currency rose.
• 10:00am EUR EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey 52.7 versus 51.3 expected. The currency rose.
• All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings: Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said that, "I have no doubt negotiations will continue in the next few days and that in the end there will be a deal which will be therapeutic for Greece". The currency rose.
• 1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -13.55B versus 5.35B expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 7.8 versus 9.1 expected. The currency fell.
• 2:33pm NZD GDT Price Index 10.1 versus last 9.4% expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 55 versus 58 expected. The currency fell.
• 5:00pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan said that, SNB Chairman Jordan said that, “It (Swiss National Bank) will continue to take the exchange rate situation into consideration when formulating its monetary policy. It will therefore remain active in the foreign exchange market, should this prove necessary in order to influence monetary conditions". The currency fell.

Wednesday, February 18th

• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 2:49am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "Japan's economy has continued its moderate recovery trend. Overseas economies --mainly advanced economies-- have been recovering, albeit with a lackluster performance still seen in part. In this situation, exports have been picking up. Business fixed investment has been on a moderate increasing trend as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has more or less leveled off at a high level." The currency rose.
• 6:31am JPY BOJ Press Conference BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, “As I’ve said before, exchange rate changes are positive for some industries and companies and negative for others, depending on their situation. But as long as the exchange rate reflects economic fundamentals... I don’t think it is bad for the economy.” The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 2.1% versus 1.7% expected. The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -38.6K versus -25.2K expected. The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 versus 0-0-9 expected. The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 versus 0-0-9 expected. The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 5.7% versus 5.8% expected. The currency rose.
• 10:33am EUR German 10-year Bond Auction 0.37 average yield with a 1.4 bid to cover ratio versus last average yield 0.52 percent with a 1.3 bid to cover ratio expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales 2.5% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.05M versus 1.08M expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD PPI -0.8% versus -0.4% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Core PPI -0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Housing Starts 1.07M versus 1.07M expected. The currency rose.
• 2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 79.4% versus 79.9% expected. The currency rose. 79.7% expected. The currency rose.
• 2:15pm USD Industrial Production 0.2% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
• 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that, "The Committee voted to amend the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations and the Procedural Instructions with Respect to Foreign Currency Operations, and to reaffirm the Foreign Currency Directive in the form shown below. The approval of these documents included approval of the System's warehousing agreement with the U.S. Treasury. A change was made to the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations to increase the duration limit of the foreign currency portfolio to 24 months from 18 months. This change was made to provide greater flexibility in the management of the foreign currency portfolio, in an environment in which interest rates are low in many major economies." The currency rose.
• 9:45pm NZD PPI Input -0.4% versus -0.2% expected. The currency rose.
• 10:00pm USD FOMC Member Powell said that, "While it is possible to observe the characteristics of cash market investments, it is far more challenging to assess comparable positions in the derivatives and secured lending markets. Investors may take highly leveraged positions in leveraged loans through total return swaps and secured funding transactions, and a substantial buildup of these positions could present run and fire-sale risks if asset values started to fall. Today, the evidence suggests that such positions are fairly limited, but challenges in measurement and data make it hard to get a clear picture." The currency rose.
• 11:50pm JPY Trade Balance -0.41T versus -0.60T expected. The currency rose.

Thursday, February 19th

• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 7:00am CHF Trade Balance 3.43B versus 1.23B expected. The currency fell.
• 11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 10 versus 7 expected. The currency fell.
• 12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts noted that, "Against the background of expectations of further monetary policy accommodation in the euro area, the euro had weakened against major currencies, with the exception of the Japanese yen. Since the early December 2014 meeting, the euro had depreciated by around 6% against the US dollar and had declined to an 11-year low of below USD 1.16, which in part reflected strong growth expectations in the United States. Many analysts’ forecasts for the USD/EUR exchange rate had been adjusted downwards markedly. Option market-based indicators also pointed to an asymmetric distribution of market expectations, with a higher probability being assigned to further depreciation of the euro. The Swiss National Bank’s decision of 15 January 2015 to discontinue the exchange rate floor of CHF 1.20 against the euro and to lower its policy rate target range to between -1.25% and -0.25%, from -0.75% to 0.25%, had led to a strong appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro." The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 283K versus 305K expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 5.2 versus 8.8 expected. The currency rose.
• 4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 7.7M versus last 4.9M expected. The currency rose.

Friday, February 20th

• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.7 versus 49.7 expected. The currency fell.
• 8:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 53.4 versus 49.9 expected. The currency fell.
• 8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.9 versus 51.8 expected. The currency fell.
• 8:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 55.5 versus 54.3 expected. The currency fell.
• 9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.1 versus 51.6 expected. The currency fell.
• 9:00am EUR Flash Services PMI 53.9 versus 53.2 expected. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP Retail Sales -0.3% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose. 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -9.4B versus -9.5B expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales -2.3% versus -0.7% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Retail Sales -2.0% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.3 versus 53.7 expected. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.13982 open to a 1.13612 close.

USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 118.627 open to 118.696 close.

GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from 1.54103 open to a 1.53816 close.

AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.77643 open to a 0.78269 close.

USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.24525 open to a 1.25079 close.

NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.7475 open to a 0.7527 close.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.