Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of August 10th through August 14th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of August 10th through August 14th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, August 9th
2:30am CNY CPI 1.6% versus 1.5% expected.
2:30am CNY PPI -5.4% versus -5.0% expected.
Monday, August 10th
12:50am JPY Current Account 1.30T versus 1.41T expected. The currency rose.
12:15pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that,
“Employment has been rising pretty fast relative to previous performance, and yet inflation is very low,” he said. “And the concern about this situation is not to move before we see inflation, as well as employment, returning to more normal levels.”
The currency fell.
2:00pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart said that,
“Normally, we will have at least two so called "go-rounds," and the first one is on the economy and the second one is on policy. Sometimes there will be a special subject, in which case we will be asked to give our opinion on either some kind of a technical question or a longer-term monetary policy strategic question, so it's not uncommon that there are three go-rounds, but there are at least two. The economy go-round typically starts with the Reserve Bank presidents. They tend to be the early speakers, and then towards the end you will hear more from the governors, and then at the very end from Chair Yellen.”
The currency fell.
5:25pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart said that,
“Much progress has been achieved since December 2008, when the Fed's policy rate reached zero, and mid-2009, when the recession ended. That progress has been accomplished with the support of extraordinary monetary policy. Current and prospective economic conditions increasingly do not demand the most aggressive stance of policy. I think the time to begin normalizing monetary conditions is close. Once underway, the process of raising interest rates to more normal, sustainable levels will likely be gradual.”
The currency fell.
Tuesday, August 11th
1:30am CNY New Loans 1480B versus 725B expected.
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 4 versus last 8 expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey 25.0 versus 31.7 expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment survey 47.6 versus 43.9 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity 1.3% versus 1.6% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Preliminary Unit Labor Costs 0.5% versus 0.0% expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday, August 12th
12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that,
“Bond, stock, and foreign exchange markets had temporarily shown somewhat volatile movements in response to developments in political and economic conditions in Greece and large fluctuations in the Chinese stock market. Specifically, yields on 10-year JGBs had temporarily declined, mainly reflecting a drop in long-term interest rates overseas against the background of uncertainty about political and economic conditions in Greece. However, they had increased thereafter, mainly in response to progress in such conditions, and were recently moving at around 0.45 percent.”
The currency fell.
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 7.8% versus last -3.2% expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Wage Price Index 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
6:30am CNY Industrial Production 6.0% versus 6.7% expected.
6:30am CNY Fixed Asset Investment 11.2% versus 11.5% expected.
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 2.4% versus 2.8% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -4.9K versus 1.4K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 5.6% versus 5.6% expected. The currency rose.
11:00am AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that,
“Monetary policy can play some role here, including by helping reduce uncertainty by maintaining low and stable inflation and overall stability in the economy. But monetary policy is, ultimately, not a driver of medium-term economic growth. Indeed, while low interest rates are currently helping the economy through a period of transition, an extended period of low interest rates implies ongoing low returns to savers and low underlying returns on assets. This is not a world to which we should aspire. One of the challenges we face as a country is to lift the expected risk-adjusted return on investment in new assets, whether they be physical assets or human capital. If we can do this, then we will see the investment in new assets that is crucial to the sustainable expansion in the economy.”
The currency rose
1:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that,
“A skilled workforce that is matched to the needs of employers is also necessary for the economy to grow and prosper. By pursuing its mandated goals of maximum employment and price stability, monetary policy can help labor markets recover by providing incentives for firms to invest and grow. However, monetary policy cannot by itself solve skill mismatches that may exist in the economy. These frictions must be addressed in other ways, such as by workforce development policies. That is, monetary policy can complement workforce development policies, but is not a substitute for these policies.”
The currency fell.
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.25M versus 5.33M expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.7M versus -1.6M expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, August 13th
12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders -7.9% versus -5.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:45am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.7% versus last 3.4% expected. The currency fell.
8:15am CHF PPI -0.3% versus -0.2% expected. The currency rose.
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts noted that,
“Finally, with regard to developments in international markets, following the agreement on Greece on 13 July the focus had seemed to be shifting towards China and the United States. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index had declined by more than 20% since 12 June 2015, after having risen by more than 150% in less than a year, accompanied by growing concerns about the valuation of the Chinese equity markets. The People’s Bank of China had reacted to this decline by cutting benchmark interest rates and decreasing reserve requirements. Developments in Chinese financial markets had reportedly exerted some pressure on commodity prices. Brent crude oil prices had declined since 1 June, falling by more than 12% at the trough.”
The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 274K versus 272K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Import Prices -0.9% versus -1.0% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Mortgage Delinquencies 5.30% versus last 5.54% expected. The currency rose.
11:45pm NZD Retail Sales 0.1% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales 0.1% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
Friday, August 14th
3:15am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that,
“The Australian economy has been growing at a moderate pace since commodity prices peaked around four years ago. While mining investment has declined substantially since then and has further to fall, resource exports have grown strongly and are expected to do so for some time. Fiscal consolidation at state and federal levels has weighed somewhat on growth. And the exchange rate has been relatively high compared to what one might have expected given these circumstances. At the same time, very low interest rates have been supporting demand.”
The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Preliminary GDP 0.4% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
7:57am EUR Greek Government Debt Crisis Vote: Pass versus Pass expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR Final CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR Flash GDP 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings: Alexander Stubb, Finnish Finance Minister said that,
“There are a lot of nitty gritty issues to be solved today but I would be very surprised if we don't get agreement today. We should be honest an open in the sense that there's a bit of a Catch 22 that we need to solve. That is, the IMF wants to be involved only if there is debt relief, we want the IMF to be involved but we don't want debt relief. Some kind of solution will have to be found. We will take it in three steps. Step number one is to come to a solution today and agree on a sum which will be released before August 20. Step number two will be a first review by the institutions that will probably be in October, depending on the political situation in Greece, and step number three to see how to get the IMF involved.”
The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales 1.2% versus 2.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD PPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.3% versus 0.1%. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.0% versus 78.0% expected. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Industrial Production 0.6% versus 0.1%. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 92.9 versus 93.5. The currency fell.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.09608 open to a 1.11075 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly Higher from a 124.211 open to 124.287 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.54875 open to a 1.56193 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.74061 open to a 0.73721 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.31283 open to a 1.30755 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 0.6603 open to a 0.6541 close.
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